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Core unemployment jumped in June to 5.9% from 5.0% in May. It's rising at an accelerating rate.

Core unemployment removes temporary layoffs and adds the marginally attached.
While the headline rate fell in June thanks to fewer temporary layoffs, the core unemployment rate is climbing.

That's the chronic pain that will follow this acute crisis.
For more on the core unemployment rate: nytimes.com/2020/06/15/ups…
A slightly different version of the core rate, including all people who want a job rather than just the marginally attached (inspired by @Brett_Matsumot0), rose from 8.7% in May to 9.1% in June. Had been 9.0% in April.
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More from @JedKolko see all

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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
The June COVID19 surge is much more widespread than the April spike. It is not concentrated in a few counties or hotspots.

More people live in counties where cases per capita are high and rising today than at any point in the pandemic. Image
The new-case rate for the median county is at a high -- well above the April level.

In April, new cases were more highly concentrated in New York and a few other hotspots, raising the national average more than the median county rate. But the current surge is more widespread. Image
There might be some comfort if a given number of new cases is more widely spread -- if that means the cases are less likely to overwhelm a local health care system.

But if local transmission is rapid, then surges in many places is a lot worse than surges in fewer places.
Read 3 tweets
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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
For the first time, the COVID19 new-case rate in red counties is as high as in blue counties.

1/
Death rates remain substantially higher in blue counties, though the gap has narrowed.

2/
Why the difference? Probably not only increased testing in red places. Positive test rates have gone up, not down, in many large Sunbelt states, while holding stable or declining in many big blue states.

3/
Read 4 tweets
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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
Let's be clear: permanent unemployment is still rising.

Temporary unemployment spiked in April and dropped in May. It's huge and is driving the headline unemployment rate. But strip that out, and the picture looks very different.

1/
Some (hopefully most!) of this economic crisis is temporary. The critical question is how much of the job losses and business closures become permanent.

So we need to track permanent measures alongside the headline numbers.

Fortunately, @BLS_gov makes this easy.

2/
The good news in the May household report:
* temporary unemployment down
* part-time for economic reasons down

The bad news:
* permanent unemployment up
* marginally-attached workers up

3/
Read 6 tweets

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