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For the first time, the COVID19 new-case rate in red counties is as high as in blue counties.

1/
Death rates remain substantially higher in blue counties, though the gap has narrowed.

2/
Why the difference? Probably not only increased testing in red places. Positive test rates have gone up, not down, in many large Sunbelt states, while holding stable or declining in many big blue states.

3/
Time will tell whether the difference between cases & deaths is due to:
1) deaths lag new infections
2) the fatality rate might be lower nationally than before
3) the fatality rate might be lower in redder than in bluer places.

All worth tracking closely.

4/end
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More from @JedKolko see all

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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
Let's be clear: permanent unemployment is still rising.

Temporary unemployment spiked in April and dropped in May. It's huge and is driving the headline unemployment rate. But strip that out, and the picture looks very different.

1/
Some (hopefully most!) of this economic crisis is temporary. The critical question is how much of the job losses and business closures become permanent.

So we need to track permanent measures alongside the headline numbers.

Fortunately, @BLS_gov makes this easy.

2/
The good news in the May household report:
* temporary unemployment down
* part-time for economic reasons down

The bad news:
* permanent unemployment up
* marginally-attached workers up

3/
Read 6 tweets
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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
The #Covid19 death rate highest in metro Albany GA, New Orleans, New York, and Detroit.

Death rates higher in colder, wetter, denser places -- and with higher Black, Asian, or Hispanic share (see next tweet).

April 2 update from @nytimes: github.com/nytimes/covid-…
County per-capita death rates higher:
* in denser counties, larger metros
* where higher shares of 60+, Black, Asian, or Hispanic residents
* in colder, wetter places
Big differences in death rates between urban counties and suburbs, smaller metros, and rural areas.
Read 3 tweets
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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
Update on local patterns in COVID19 deaths.

Albany GA has highest metro death rate. New Orleans almost 2x New York.

Based on New York Times counts through March 31. Raw data here: github.com/nytimes/covid-…

1/
Death rates highest in urban counties of large metros. Still true when New York City excluded.

2/
Regression on deaths per capita now includes county average temperature and precipitation.

COVID19 deaths higher in places that are more dense, colder, and wetter. Higher where population is older, too.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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