Today, @Rabs_AA spoke at a webinar on India's defense modernisation and its implications on deterrence stability. She started off by saying that the region that confronts trilateral complexities, is undergoing strategic shifts.
Calling for thinking on what India's defense modernisation is geared towards, @Rabs_AA coined the term "Surrogate Deterrence ", which means that India will use its toys against Pakistan (surrogate) for deterrence signalling against China cos direct deterrence is risky.
Talking about the concept of minimal escalation in response to transgressions along the LAC, she noted that the Ladakh standoff has shown that India might have to rethink what minimal escalation might look like.
Thereafter she pointed to the changing nature of warfare, and how the PLA is miles ahead of India in adopting the very changes, while questioning whether India can stand a chance against China.
Dr.Akhtar stressed that not only New Delhi but also Islamabad must study how the Chinese have ensconced three concepts of warfare in their deterrence mix. They include public opinion warfare, psychological warfare and legal warfare.
While accentuating the need to look at two dyads in SA separately, @Rabs_AA reminded that nukes do not feature prominently in the Sino-Indo dyad, but certainly do hog attention and create an impact in the Indo-Pak one.
She then talked about India's CMD (Credible-Minimum Dilemma) ,for it grapples with two nuclear-armed adversaries. What is credible for Pak is not necessarily credible for China, and what is minimum for Pakistan is definitely not likely to deter China.
This dilemma,according to her, does not augur well for India's NFU, and may propel India to formally announce FU.
India's mounting troubles ,coupled with an unfavourable regional environment, she said, cannot be deterred and mitigated by nukes. NWs ,she said,cannot be used to coerce (both compel and deter) China in Galwan or elsewhere.
Hamstrung by these constrictions ,India, said Dr.Akhtar, must think out of the box. With non-contact war likely to gain traction, India and Pakistan must fine tune their deterrence doctrines accordingly, she added .
@threadreaderapp unroll
