Thread by @DrSimEvans

😱Japan is planning to build a bunch of new coal plants…

…but it might also close loads of old ones🎇

What's going on?
Plus or minus for climate?!

THREAD with analysis + charts

First of all let's state the obvious:

Japan is *heavily* reliant on coal power

(so are most of its Asian neighbours…)

carbonbrief.org/carbon-brief-p…

Japan has the world's <checks notes> fifth largest fleet of coal-fired power stations

(It's just a smidge behind Russia and a little ahead of Germany. But China, India and the US are way ahead.)

carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…

So Japan has 47GW of coal-fired power stations operating today and another 10GW under construction.

That's despite Paris and despite @antonioguterres saying *no-one* should be building new coal.

(Japan is the world's third-richest nation)

carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…

Now, this week, two things happened.

First, in Twitter world, the Economist tweeted a graphic about Japanese plans to build more coal as if it was news.

It wasn't. But sure, let's look at what's going on…

https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1278558062270459904

Then in some real news, media reports suggested Japan might close "100 coal plants" by 2030.

Wow, sounds like a lot right?

But which 100 plants might close?

(Actually it's "units"; these are smaller)

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-jap…

Let's take a closer look at that Japanese coal fleet…

Most of it, some 27GW (three-fifths), uses less efficient sub- or supercritical technology to burn coal.

But some of them are really new. Think those are gonna get closed? Me neither.

carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…

Another way to slice things up is to look at which plants will be at least 25yrs old by 2030.

Actually that's most of the current fleet, some 40GW (84%). And that doesn't match the reported numbers.

(Also coal plants *can* run for 50+ yrs…)

So then I took a real close look…

There are 114 units that match:

✅low or medium efficiency AND/OR
✅built in 1995 or before

Reportedly around 100 of these could be closed.

Trouble is, even if Japan were to close *all 114* of those units, it would still be left with 26GW of coal power in 2030, including the 10GW currently being built.

AND there's another 2.6GW in the pipeline (this may or may not get built, that's another story).

Anyway long story short, Japan would remain hugely reliant on coal in 2030, even if both things are true:

🏭It's building lots of coal
💥It will prob close lots of coal

Read more about Japan's climate and energy plans in our (2018) country profile.

carbonbrief.org/carbon-brief-p…

There's more recent news on Japan and coal in these articles:

carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how…

carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…

Finally, thanks to @GlobalEnergyMon for the great coal plant data, without which none of this would be possible.

And if you want to know which coal units are on that list of 114 that might close, according to my analysis, I'm happy to share the spreadsheet 🤓

@GlobalEnergyMon Bonus update:

Here is the full analysis assigning Japan's coal units as those that will "stay" due to being newer/more efficient or "go" as old or inefficient.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@GlobalEnergyMon You can also see who owns those 114 units / ~30GW that might be closed.

Here's the top 5:

4.1GW J-Power (10 units)
2.3GW Chugoku (5)
2.1GW JERA (3)
2.0GW Soma Kyodo (2)
1.8GW Kyushu (3)

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@GlobalEnergyMon Here is the summary version of my thread in a single tweet inc Paris Agreement context…

https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1279002664899170306