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THREAD

There are nearly 2,500 coal power stations around the world.

More than 800 have closed since 2010…

…but another 600 are planned.

We mapped them all – because what happens next is one of the most important stories there is for climate change.

carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…
The bad news is that there is now 2,045GW of coal capacity around the world today. That's easily enough – on its own – to wipe out the carbon budget for 1.5 or 2C.

But the pipeline of new plants is slowing sharply, down by three-quarters since 2015.

carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…
The global rate of growth is also slower than it was a decade ago, thanks to a wave of retirements in US, EU & UK.

And the number of coal-fired *units* has now been falling for three years.

carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…
Global coal capacity rose again in 2019 but global coal power *output and CO2 emissions* saw a record fall.

Rising coal capacity
+ Falling coal power output
+ Cheap competition from gas & renewables
––––––––
= Terrible economics for coal

carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…
Last year the average coal plant around the world was operating barely more than 50% of its rated capacity.

That number is now lowest it's been this century.

49% in the US
37% in EU+UK
49% in China
57% in India

Tough to make a profit on those numbers.

carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…
Just 10 countries account for 86% of global coal capacity…

…and the top three alone are 72%

49% China
12% US
11% India

The pipeline of new coal is also highly concentrated.

carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…
Let's take a closer look at the key countries and regions…

Here's how coal capacity has changed in China over the past two decades, with plans for future development shown in pink.

199GW in 2000
1,005GW in 2019

+206GW planned

carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…
For more on the debate around China's future coal capacity we recently published some in-depth analysis on what is at stake

carbonbrief.org/analysis-will-…
India's coal capacity has more than tripled since 2000. Again, plans for new development are in pink.

62GW in 2000
229GW in 2019

+66GW planned

It'd be cheaper to replace much of this with solar…

carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…
In the US, capacity has crashed due to cheap gas/renewables.

339GW in 2010
246GW in 2019

Output fell 19% just last year. By the time planned closures go ahead, the fleet will have halved.

*Retirements average 14GW a year during Trump's tenure*

carbonbrief.org/analysis-will-…
The EU has also seen a wave of retirements.

Output here fell 24% last year.

189GW in 2010
143GW in 2019

13 EU members + the UK plan coal phaseouts…

…leaving just 50GW

carbonbrief.org/analysis-will-…
Credit for the data and thanks for support must go to @GlobalEnergyMon, which has been doing the hard yards on its Global Coal Plant Tracker for years now.

Our map also wouldn't have been possible without the amazing #dataviz skills of @_rospearce

carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…
Regular readers will know that we first published this map two years ago. Diehard fans can go back to see how things have changed via the archived versions of the map:

2018
web.archive.org/web/2019010119…

2019
web.archive.org/web/2020021321…
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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
Ahead of #Budget2020 tomorrow I've got some new analysis on the decade-long fuel duty freeze & UK CO2 emissions

Bottom line: UK carbon output is up to 5% higher than it would have been – & road transport CO2 is up to 16% higher

THREAD

carbonbrief.org/analysis-fuel-…
Fuel duty is levied on petrol and diesel sales at a rate of 58p per litre +VAT.

Back in 2010, the incoming coalition govt inherited plans for fuel duty to rise at 1p above inflation each year.

Instead, fuel duty has been frozen ever since:

carbonbrief.org/analysis-fuel-…
The fuel duty freeze means rates are now 24p per litre lower than they would have been, if planned increases had gone ahead (28p inc VAT).

That's an effective tax cut worth £11bn to motorists, even as public transport fares have risen above inflation.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-fuel-…
Read 11 tweets
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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
My latest @CarbonBrief analysis:

CO2 emissions within the UK fell another 2.9% in 2019, reaching levels last seen in 1888 (!)

Including a record 7 consecutive years of decline, emissions fell by 29% over the past decade.

THREAD

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…
@CarbonBrief Firstly, I have answers to all the questions we get about this analysis – every year – and you can read those in my article.

Please do read it before asking about…

* if the UK is on track (it isn't)
* imports
* biomass
* international aviation

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…
Looking back over the past decade, the UK's CO2 emissions fell by 145MtCO2 (or 29%) even as GDP rose by a fifth.

Strikingly, I also estimate that UK consumption emissions also fell by 145MtCO2 over the period (21%)

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…
Read 10 tweets
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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
The UK is aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050

Because climate change is "the greatest and most pressing challenge facing the modern world" (UK govt Jan20)

But what will it cost to get there?

Let's take an "honest" look at the evidence, shall we?

(sources at the end)

THREAD
According to official adviser @theCCCuk, annual investment would need to be in the region of 1-2% of GDP in 2050.

That's <£50bn a year.

Let's make it sound scary & multiply by 30yrs!

£1.5tn 😱

Now for context remember UK households spend >£30bn/yr, just to fill up their cars.
But wait!

If we invest £50bn a year, we get to transform the entire UK economy, enjoy cleaner cities, cut emissions to net-zero and help avoid dangerous climate change.

Missing out the benefit in cost-benefit analysis is a classic scare tactic.

carbonbrief.org/uk-climate-cha…
Read 30 tweets

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रोशनी 🇮🇳
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Is History All True ❓ Series Finale:

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Rana Ahmad
@lovhum
#Thread: Saudi Arabia recently invited many celebrities around the world, to improve the reputation of Saudi Arabia, to hide the truth about Saudi Arabia. To make everyone in social media thinks Saudi has really changed! In this thread I'll just talk about Saudi women rights.
Women here are forced to wear abaya, some of cities forced them wearing niqab too. And look at how they treat foreign women, they have the right to wear whatever they want, but when Saudi women try to do the same they say you’re violating the law! This video of a Saudi woman.
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paulmuaddib61
@paulmuaddib61
Connecting...... 😏 PART 1
They all knew 9/11 was coming and planned to have a National Security Meeting right after it happened.
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Saiswaroopa
@Sai_swaroopa
#Thread #Kurukshetra #Analytics #Mahabharata
Started a fun project of mine today. Recording the duels of Kurukshetra war in an excel sheet in anticipation of some interesting pattern. Watch this space for interesting tidbits. Full exercise may take quite a while
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Katharine Child
@katjanechild
#Thread There may have been sabotage last week, but a look at the power utilities report to Nersa paints Eskom on the brink of collapse. Eskom's own report describes a litany of severe faults with the new power stations' most important components...
So problem one is the technology Medupi was built with which is very modern technology... Way mismatched to the low grade coal quality in the ground at Lephalale. The Eskom report details poor coal is damaging every part of Kusile and Medupi.
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