Thread by @nicholadrummond

THE INTEGRATED DEFENCE REVIEW (Thread)
As life returns to a new kind of normal, the 2020 Integrated Defence Review is back on the agenda. It will be the most significant reconfiguration of UK Defence & Security since 2010. We have to hope it doesn't repeat the same mistakes.
1/20

The 2010 SDSR was not an attempt to design Britain’s Armed Forces around existential threats. It was about using the Navy, Army and Air Force to reduce the deficit resulting from the global financial crisis.
2/20

Today, we are faced with a another crisis that has holed the Government's budget below the waterline. It requires belt-tightening on a grand scale. There are no votes in defence, so again we should expect it to be an easy source of extra cash.
3/20

To strengthen the case for cuts, critics of the Armed Forces will accuse the Navy of understating the cost of Carrier Strike at the expense of its core capabilities. Or say that Army procurement reveals an inability to buy anything off the shelf without adding gold taps.
4/20

Meanwhile, the RAF's obsession with US aircraft, leaves us at the mercy of $/£ exchange rates. But while capability development isn't perfect, using perceived failures as justification to emasculate the armed forces further is like cutting off your nose to spite your face.
5/20

As we consider our defence priorities, there are two things to bear in mind. One is that when deep cuts were made in 2010, our defence aspirations were not reduced accordingly. The second is that, despite fewer resources, the Armed Forces have not dropped standards.
6/20

Meanwhile, the world has become more dangerous and volatile. China’s mask has slipped. It’s throwing its weight around in Asia and Africa. It failed to provide timely warning of the COVID-19 outbreak and misled us even though it knew how serious the virus was.
7/20

Russia's goal is to destabilise NATO governments. Iran remains a sponsor of global terrorism. North Korea hasn't changed either. Our potential adversaries all have the same thing in common: they are ruled by totalitarian regimes that seek to retain power at all costs.
8/20

Recent history shows us that contemporary conflicts unfold with unexpected speed speed and severity, which means a reduced response times. If we fight tonight, we do so with the resources we have, not the ones we would ideally like.
9/20

When it comes to predicting future conflicts, we have a perfect record. We haven’t gotten it right once. This means we need flexible capabilities as well as focused ones. We have to be organised so we can ramp up recruitment, training and the manufacturing of materiel.
10/20

In return for accepting the 2010 SDSRS, Britain’s defence chiefs were promised jam tomorrow. A decade after the most serious postwar cuts, you'd expect the Government to light a fire under modernisation, like the USA, Australia, and France, but it no longer seems possible.
11/20

Modernising defence isn't just about replacing kit that dates back to the Cold War. We need to respond to the billions being spent by China and Russia. We need to invest, not so we can go it alone, but to be a credible partner to our allies.
12/20

While Cyber, C4I and Space have become new domains, it would be a huge mistake to think that investing in grey zone capabilities is a substitute for hard power. We need to be strong enough so that potential adversaries are dissuaded from aggression.
13/20

These are tough times and clearly the Government’s budget is finite. it means we need to choose which battles to fight - quite literally. Which is why it is 100% correct that the Integrated Review should mould Defence Strategy around Foreign Policy.
14/20

Ensuring our armed forces are resourced deter the most important threats is like a building a wall around us to keep out predators. But a wall is useless if it has gaps, which means we may need to be a tighter perimeter as the gaps are significant..
15/20

The Navy has only 13 frigates.
The Navy has only 7 attack submarines.
The Navy needs more sailors.
The Army's combat vehicle fleet has an average age of 40-years
The Army's artillery systems need wholesale renewal.
The Army needs more soldiers.
16/20

The RAF was meant to get 250 Typhoons & 148 F-35s, but will be lucky if gets half that number.
The RAF is getting a new MPA, the P8 Poseidon, but only 9 aircraft.
The RAF has been forced to outsource pilot training.
Accommodation across all three services is dilapidated.
17/20

If the impact of COVID-19 wasn't enough, We still haven't concluded a post-Brexit trade deals with the EU and USA. If 2020 GDP declines by 10%, it means that we will have £4-5 billion less to spend on Defence. That's a scary number.
18/20

The overwhelming conclusion is we cannot afford everything. Therefore, we need to decide what we must do, and do it well. This may mean leaving Asian security to the USA, Japan, Australia and South Korea, and ensuring we are more closely aligned with our European allies.
19/20

Difficult choices lie ahead. But, like buying a cheap insurance policy, if we scrimp and save on Defence, we may find we don't have adequate protection when we need most it and it will end-up costing us more.
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