Thread by @fascinatorfun

🦠Yesterday the DHSC decided it wasn’t going to report as they have done before. I suspect they hope we shan’t notice the big fat glaring black hole buried in their notes.

First the standard bits

67 of the 44,198 deaths were reported yesterday

672 positives of 284,900 total

2/ 🦠 So pillar 1 tests are counted as “processed” when they actually have been in a lab

Pillar 2. Are “administered”
EITHER when they are sent out OR Processed in a lab. (Surely both stages are counted somehow?)

Ah! ‼️ Not all tests sent out will be returned to the lab”.

This gives us some sense of the rate of “processing”.

46,818 Pillar 1 tests processed.. 163 positive.
53,577 Pillar 2 processed....461 positive.

83,058 Pillar 2 sent out.

💥 IF NONE UNCLEAR 0.35% of pillar 1 (hospital, healthcare settings & clinical need) are positive

IF NONE ARE UNCLEAR

💥0.86% of Pillar 2 tests are positive (community, essential workers, care homes - mostly).

This is where flare ups seen

So nearly 2.5 times the pillar 1

If none are unclear.
We need to know how many are as it affects %.
Also is a performance indicator.

3/ Unclears and void tests need to be identified super quick and the person retested and isolated and traces within a very small window if there is to be effective disease identification.

Also these may give indicators where the weaknesses are in the system.

💥 No data here

4/. With regard to +ves this also illustrates why daily data is needed both regionally and locally because if you just average it out nationally or even regionally you cannot tell where the flare ups are.

So if virtually all your positives are in one town that is key info.

5/. Even more. If A LOT are in one town but there is growth nearby that tells us something about the spread early.

That sort of data is not included in THIS report. But Manchester/ Leicester/ Liverpool have demonstrated its importance.

6/. Going back to “not all kits returned”

How are “non returned kits” investigated?

What actions are taken because people are out there needing tests & not getting them.

How quickly is this actioned?
By whom?

How many are there?
Do we even know?

Just a handful?

Thousands?

7/. ⁉️ Wowser! 7,392,582 pillars 1 to 4 tests “processed”

10,340,511 “made available”

🦠💥🦠 That is nearly 3 MILLION tests “NOT processed”. 2,947,929 to be precise

I really think they need to be clear about how many are attributable to Pillar 1 & especially Pillar 2 tests

8/. Pillar 3 and 4 tests are useful for population surveillance so we do need to know how many are not returned. And why. What are the obstacles?

But Pillar 1 & 2 we REALLY need to know and the timescales and applicable regions and towns.

9/. Even, now when positive % are low ( unlike back in April when it was really high) if those were all Pillar 2 tests that would be another 26,236 positives (& all onward contacts that were positive) simply unknown and unactioned.

So how many MIGHT be Pillar 3 and 4?

10/. Well. We know the numbers for Pillar 4 sent out

566,487.

How many have been processed?

216,513

🔥 349,997 pillar 4 tests have NOT been processed?

Anyone know why? Timescales?

I am curious about payment for all these unprocessed tests as well.

11/. So if approximately 2.9 million tests have yet to be processed about 350k are Pillar 4.

That still leaves over 2.5 million that seem highly likely to be Pillar 1 or 2.

Given Pillar 1 are only counted when processed that seems to 👉 Pillar 2 ⁉️

12/. Remember : “Pillar 3 only counted when processed”.

Of course there is bound to be a bit of a lag between sending out a kit & returning or swabbing someone & processing it, but Hancock baby claimed a quite marvellous degree of speed only days ago

https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1278729879748579331?s=21

13/. NO WONDER he was so keen to deflect attention away from the “people tested” black hole.

It looks rather massive.

14/ So the lag is very short... can’t account for much more than 400k tests. Still 2 million.

When you think about that lots of other questions then arise quite apart from risk of untested people.

15/. 🦠What about the fabulous targets?

💥What about the decision to commission in this way?

🦠 To continue to do so

💥 What was in those contracts about notification of non returns? Voided kits? Reasons? Unclears? IT systems? QA?

🦠 Who oversees, audits data and payments?

16/. Because they are going out to tender for £billions more of it and I think we need to understand what has happened before we do.

17/. Correction. Yesterday’s reported positives were 624.

It doesn’t affect the rest of the calculations.

18/. Looking at my notes I realise I have made a significant typo.

It isn’t 2.9 million unprocessed kits.

It is 2,407,932.

However that still means that is A LOT of unprocessed diagnostic tests without adequate explanation

Damn
Now I am wondering if I should redo the thread