1/. I am redoing and earlier thread on the DHSC test and death data release from yesterday, when they announced no further daily summaries
I regret that I had too many notes and this resulted in two number typos.
🦠But nothing diverts from the huge black hole they reveal.
I regret that I had too many notes and this resulted in two number typos.
🦠But nothing diverts from the huge black hole they reveal.
2/. First the standard bits
67 of the 44,198 deaths were reported yesterday.
624 of the 284,900 POSITIVE tests were reported yesterday.
Remember that c30k positives were removed from the cumulative total a couple of days ago due to duplication errors.
67 of the 44,198 deaths were reported yesterday.
624 of the 284,900 POSITIVE tests were reported yesterday.
Remember that c30k positives were removed from the cumulative total a couple of days ago due to duplication errors.
3/ 🦠So pillar 1 tests are counted as “processed” when they actually have been in the lab.
Pillar 2 are “administered”
EITHER when they are sent out
OR processed in the lab
Surely both stages are counted somehow
They note ‼️ NOT all tests sent out are returned.
I should coco
Pillar 2 are “administered”
EITHER when they are sent out
OR processed in the lab
Surely both stages are counted somehow
They note ‼️ NOT all tests sent out are returned.
I should coco
4/ This gives us some sense of rate of processing
46,818 Pillar 1 tests processed 163 +ve
53,577 Pillar 2 processed ..461 +ve
83,058 Pillar 2 sent out
💥 If none UNCLEAR then 0.35% of pillar 1 (hospital, healthcare settings & clinical need) were +ve
46,818 Pillar 1 tests processed 163 +ve
53,577 Pillar 2 processed ..461 +ve
83,058 Pillar 2 sent out
💥 If none UNCLEAR then 0.35% of pillar 1 (hospital, healthcare settings & clinical need) were +ve
5/ IF NONE ARE UNCLEAR
💥0.86% of Pillar 2 tests are positive (community essential workers, care homes - mostly)
So nearly 2.5 times Pillar 1.
This is where flare ups are seen
We need to know unclears as it affects the % of +ve and indicates performance measures.
💥0.86% of Pillar 2 tests are positive (community essential workers, care homes - mostly)
So nearly 2.5 times Pillar 1.
This is where flare ups are seen
We need to know unclears as it affects the % of +ve and indicates performance measures.
6/ unclears and void tests need to be identified super quick and the people retested and isolated, T&T within a v small window if there is to be effective disease identification
Also these may give indicators of where weaknesses are in the systems and the tests.
💥No data here
Also these may give indicators of where weaknesses are in the systems and the tests.
💥No data here
7/ with regard to the positives this also indicates why daily data is needed (not just aggregate) both regionally & locally because if you just avg it out nationally or even regionally you cannot tell where the flare ups are.
Most of your positives may cluster in a few places
Most of your positives may cluster in a few places
8/ Equally as important is to see if there are cases spreading to nearby localities so action can be taken.
That sort of data is not contained in THIS report but Leicester/Manchester/ Liverpool have demonstrated its importance.
Hunting down the data is problematic
That sort of data is not contained in THIS report but Leicester/Manchester/ Liverpool have demonstrated its importance.
Hunting down the data is problematic
9/ Going back to “not all test kits are returned”
💥 How many?
💥What actions taken because people are out there needing tests and not getting them.
💥How quickly is this actioned and by whom?
💥Just a handful? Thousands?
💥 How many?
💥What actions taken because people are out there needing tests and not getting them.
💥How quickly is this actioned and by whom?
💥Just a handful? Thousands?
10/. ⁉️WOWSER. 7,932,582 pillar 1 to 4 tests processed
10,340,511 “made available”
🦠💥🦠 that is over 2.4 MILLION tests “made available” but not processed. 2,407,929 to be precise.
How many attributable to pillar 1 & 2 diagnostic tests. The key ones?
10,340,511 “made available”
🦠💥🦠 that is over 2.4 MILLION tests “made available” but not processed. 2,407,929 to be precise.
How many attributable to pillar 1 & 2 diagnostic tests. The key ones?
11/. Before we look into that I want to look at that “made available” . The language used is clearly intended to indicate that others did not avail themselves if a given opportunity.
But is that true or did the companies involve do something to make those tests useless?
But is that true or did the companies involve do something to make those tests useless?
12/. Numerous accounts of kits arriving with missing components or without return labels or simply not collected. Or arriving so late the window of opportunity had passed. How many
Plenty accounts of kits being returned but voided due to barcode, tube and swab issues
Plenty accounts of kits being returned but voided due to barcode, tube and swab issues
People told to put kits in the bin.
Care home recently being sent far more kits than requested but told not to use the balance.
Care home recently being sent far more kits than requested but told not to use the balance.
14/. These aren’t tests that have been “made available”.
But the language is a clear effort to make it look that the fault lies with the applicant and to cover up gross errors in administration.
But the language is a clear effort to make it look that the fault lies with the applicant and to cover up gross errors in administration.
15/ NOW returning to the 2.4 million unprocessed tests.
The notes suggest that Pillar 1 are only counted when processed in the lab. We need absolute clarity whether ANY and how many of the 2.4 mill are Pillar 1. My working hypothesis is only a small number because of this.
The notes suggest that Pillar 1 are only counted when processed in the lab. We need absolute clarity whether ANY and how many of the 2.4 mill are Pillar 1. My working hypothesis is only a small number because of this.
16/. Ditto. Pillar 3 are only counted once processed according to the notes.
Pillar 4 does has 566,487 “sent out”
How many processed?
216,513
💥 349,997 pillar 4 tests NOT processed.
Timescales? Reasons?
How does payment work?
Pillar 4 does has 566,487 “sent out”
How many processed?
216,513
💥 349,997 pillar 4 tests NOT processed.
Timescales? Reasons?
How does payment work?
17/. So if over 2.4 million tests have yet to be processed about 350k may be pillar 4.
🔥🔥🔥That still leaves over 2 million unprocessed. And it seems probable that these are substantially Pillar 2 tests
Maybe there is a bit of a time lag?
But Hancock Baby claimed hardly ANY
🔥🔥🔥That still leaves over 2 million unprocessed. And it seems probable that these are substantially Pillar 2 tests
Maybe there is a bit of a time lag?
But Hancock Baby claimed hardly ANY
18/. I mean. Look at his claim from just a few days ago.
19/. No WONDER he was so keen to deflect attention from the big black “people tested” data black hole saying it was “unimportant”
In fact it is rather massive.
As @TimHarford from the excellent #MoreOrLess pointed out.
It is key to understanding positivity rate.
In fact it is rather massive.
As @TimHarford from the excellent #MoreOrLess pointed out.
It is key to understanding positivity rate.
20/. When you think about that black hole deeply LOTS of questions emerge
🦠The risk of untested people passing the virus on. Remember back in March/ April about 1 in 3 people were coming back positive. Then 1 in 10. As testing expanded the positivity rate went down
🦠The risk of untested people passing the virus on. Remember back in March/ April about 1 in 3 people were coming back positive. Then 1 in 10. As testing expanded the positivity rate went down
21/. 💥 So WHEN and WHERE were these non returned or VOIDED or UNCLEAR kits occurring? Because that is really important.
🦠. What about those fabulous targets?
💥What about the decision to commission in this way? Especially as they are intending to spen more £billions
🦠. What about those fabulous targets?
💥What about the decision to commission in this way? Especially as they are intending to spen more £billions
22/. 💰 We need answers more more of our money is spent (? wasted?) this way promoting an ideology over quality.
💥What was in those contracts about notification (to whom?) of non returns? Voided kits? Unclears? Reasons? IT systems? QA?
🦠Timescales
💥What was in those contracts about notification (to whom?) of non returns? Voided kits? Unclears? Reasons? IT systems? QA?
🦠Timescales
23/. 💥Who overseas, audits data & payments
🦠Who takes what swift actions to sweep up the patients who have fallen down that black hole?
💰 who makes sure dud kits and process are dedexuted from payments? How is payment structured? How is success measured?
🦠Who takes what swift actions to sweep up the patients who have fallen down that black hole?
💰 who makes sure dud kits and process are dedexuted from payments? How is payment structured? How is success measured?
24/. We really REALLY need to understand this is we are to spend further £ billions on more of this.
The Science & Technology, Health and Treasury Select Committes and the @NAOorguk @UKStatsAuth need to be on this now
And we all need HONEST answers. Trust has been battered.
The Science & Technology, Health and Treasury Select Committes and the @NAOorguk @UKStatsAuth need to be on this now
And we all need HONEST answers. Trust has been battered.
And a little reminder from tan ex-director of the CDC
*an* - no tan!
