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THE JOBS CHART THAT WORRIES ME MOST

In today's @Markets newsletter, I wrote about permanent layoffs, which are surging faster than at the start of the Great Financial Crisis.

1.6 million permanent layoffs in 4 months. Last time it took 11 months. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
@markets Big thanks to @calculatedrisk for putting this chart together:

If you exclude ALL the layoffs currently characterized as temporary, and just look at the fraction of job losses characterized as permanent, we're already on a worse trajectory than the GFC calculatedriskblog.com/2020/07/by-req…
Anyway, sign up for the newsletter here. link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/join/4wm/marke…
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Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart
BREAKING:

JUNE PAYROLLS BEAT EXPECTATIONS. 4.8 MILLION vs. 3.2 MILLION EXPECTED

Unemployment rate falls to 11.1% from 13.3%

Futures now up 1.2% pre-market bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Once again, however, we see that while the number of unemployed fell in June (red line) the number of unemployed workers whose job losses are characterized as permanent (white line) continues to rise
Here's just the permanent job losses on its own scale. You can see, this is real, sustained damage setting us back years
Read 12 tweets
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Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart
Portnoy is pulling letters out of a Scrabble bag to decide which stock to buy next.
He just picked Raytheon $RTX
Didn't really move the market much. Robinhood effect debunked.
Read 5 tweets
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Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart
THREE SIMPLE REASONS WE'VE SEEN SUCH A FEROCIOUS STOCK MARKET RALLY

There's been a lot of Galaxy Brain takes about why stocks have rallied so hard. But in today's @markets newsletter, I argued that it's all pretty straightforward bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
@markets The first reason is simply that economic activity is just way better than it was at the end of March by numerous measures.

Here's the number of people flying (via @conorsen)
@markets @conorsen Here's dining out activity in the early open states.
Read 14 tweets

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