Thread by @ASlavitt

WHAT’S NEXT: With little guidance from the federal government other than “live with it,” it’s critical that each of us understands the situation where we live & is ready for what’s next.

Together we can get through this.

Wave 1, phase 1 locations: NYC, NJ, CT, Boston, Detroit, NO, Chicago.

Currently on the downswing after suffering real loss. Govs being careful. People restless but cautious.

2 warnings....

W1,P1: Bounce backs are easy because these are dense cities & while r0 are low, they are all moving up. Keeping indoor dining & bars closed is still key. Detroit & NO showing some signs.

Wave 1, Phase 2: Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Austin, LA, San Antonio, Charlotte. (WE ARE HERE)

Going through peak hopefully within a week with new measures put in place. Heat likely drove people indoors, reconditioned air. Lax measures, no masks. W1,P2 became lab for the country.

W1,P2: As hard as it is, stay home as much as possible. Mask in public. Keep older & more at risk communities safe.

Staff is still toughest resources. Thx to all medical professionals who have been flying in. Beds are more findable than med professionals.

W1P2: Bars and restaurants a danger, churches a danger. Outdoor activities safer (but it’s hot & humid).

Farm workers & borders a concern.

Keep the death rate down. Young people who have been infected must isolate from parents/grandparents.

Wave 1, Phase 3&4: Smaller cities & areas that have been spared, here’s a quick aside:

You haven’t avoided CV outbreak because you’re smarter than P1 & O2 states. Truth is people probably travel there less. And you’re outdoors more. But the virus isn’t done.

W1,P3&4: Your good fortune is that just as W1P2 areas are benefiting from better science, better venting procedures & high risk people taking more care, you need to learn the lessons of the W1P2 areas.

Many of you aren’t requiring masks & are short of testing.

First lesson to learn: without enough testing & contact tracing, the virus spreads BEFORE you know it. Just when you think you’re doing great.

Don’t pat yourself on the back. Use this time to take measures TX, AZ & FL wish they had.

W1,P1,3&4; Limit travel to and from phase 2 states. And definitely to & from Las Vegas.

IFR should drop from close to 1.5 for P1 to hopefully under 1 or .75 in Ph 2. Scientific advances should continue.

Here is a state handbook we prepared. Designed for state governments big go be read by everyone who wants to.

unitedstatesofcare.org/covid-19/new-p…

We have huge gaps in our overall knowledge. But indoor dining, bars, enclosed spaces are increasingly of concern.

Open windows & doors & ventilate. Use fans. Filters not a silver bullet.

To the extent that you need to make adjustments, not see people you love, school & WFH are challenging, maybe it helps that these adjustments are not forever.

School under the BEST of circumstances is going to be hard. It won’t be ideal for our kids. We may feel cheated as parents. But there are no perfect answers. This with @arneduncan helped me understand.

Smarturl.it/intheBubble

Small business owners will & our suffering. Restaurant & bars. People’s dreams. And with that people are worried about their safety nets.

Congress must act now to get people through this unusual time.

unitedstatesofcare.org/covid-19/effec…

The most important point is the difficult period can be LIMITED by our actions as most countries around the world have now proven.

They are now vigilant to new cases but back to a more normal life & w very few deaths.

The right short term actions & helping our neighbors are all people need to worry about. Extra compassion in difficult times. Taking care of yourself.

Scientists, vaccine researchers & so many unknowns will be long terms forces that shape the future.