Keep being asked why in 2018 I mentioned a jump of virus/bacteria from an animal to humans in China as biggest 'threat' to world & how global health experts knew how COVID would unfold in late Jan. No crystal ball. Just look at data, analyse it, study patterns. It's all there.
Same thing happening now across the world. Since Jan, our team has been studying carefully how different countries have handled COVID, their policies & decisions, & what governments did well & badly. Observational studies in real-time --> use this to see where things are heading.
In March, countries ignored China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea's experience & decided to take a gamble on their own path. I tried to warn then about this: dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…
And highlight the large gamble through not taking the tried & tested public health approach given large uncertainty over immunity & over health impact. Buying time was the message to figure out how best to handle this virus. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
After everything we've learned- there are few ways this pandemic can play out. Some rely on hope: mutation to milder version, cross-immunity or wider immunity than antibody tests showing- but no evidence yet. Best strategy is to suppress and eliminate. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
