Would be surprised to see case numbers stay low over next 2 weeks. Hearing of people renting party buses to escape Leicester lockdown & head to pubs outside, & same for Scottish people crossing border to get into pubs. Pubs/bars highest risk environment for virus to spread.
If entire UK was light yellow, I’d be more relaxed as little virus circulating esp if number in single digits. But people from yellow areas going into darker areas with community transmission into pubs/bars & returning home to yellow areas will set off chains of infections.
Bars/pubs are THE highest risk for virus to spread as US states like Texas and California have painfully learned. Repeating others’ mistakes instead of learning from them.
Shows Zero-Covid Scotland can only happen w/ England’s cooperation. Pubs open in Scotland in 2 weeks when Covid would have been negligible & much safer to go out. ‘Zero COVID’ approach means back to normality. But not possible right now given divergent strategies among nations.
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There seems to be complacency & fatigue at COVID in the U.K. which is completely different to the reality in hospitals. My colleague @kennethbaillie is understated & careful in his messaging and look at what he’s telling us from inside a hospital 👇🏼 (1/n)
Unlike a year back we now have safe & effective vaccines, ample testing & know how to mitigate transmission with getting outside, ventilation & face coverings. But we have to use these tools to keep society & businesses open & COVID under control.
Indoor settings where people interact closely without masks are the riskiest. This is where the introduction of protections such as either a negative test or proof of full vax can reduce risk, help employees feel safer & improve consumer confidence. Look at NYC, France, Germany.
Scotland moves to 'Beyond 0' on 9 August. Some measures remain in place: face coverings indoors, test/trace/isolate (isolate if test positive, contacts can be released from isolation with double vax & neg PCR test), home working when possible, & local outbreak response.
Schools will retain same mitigations for start of school year (for 6 weeks & then reviewed) including ventilation & CO2 monitors. But full bubbles no longer asked to isolate- more targeted approach to avoid disruption. Caution due to mixing of large groups of unvaccinated kids.
Mixed feelings about nightclubs re-opening. Great for socializing/mental health/jobs, but high-risk environment for transmission. Have to continue to encourage younger people to get vaccinated & only go out if feeling well. Stay home if symptomatic (no coughing in the club).
Seeing lots of unhelpful panic over today’s numbers. Obviously caution needed but most important marker is whether link between cases and moderate to severe disease being broken. This is a different wave than previous ones. We are in new territory.
More here. I’m very concerned about South Asia, Latin America & Sub-Saharan Africa now. They’re in crisis and serious trouble. Not enough vaccines, not enough oxygen & hospital beds & no economic support for people to stay home.
Even New Zealand now going same way given vaccines. They avoided the death & repeated lockdowns that Europe had, but now need sustainable exit. Bloomfield: ‘There’s no doubt that having as much of the population vaccinated as possible is key to us being able to open the border.”
Happy Mon!☀️Instead of arguing about lockdown (it’s been a harsh year), we need to prepare for future pandemics: stop spillover of viruses from animals to humans, ⬆️ vaccine manufacturing capacity globally & prepare to move from sequencing to jabs in arms within a few months.
Lockdowns have been a last resort measure to keep health services from collapsing. No one wants restrictions given the high social & economic cost they carry. So how do we prepare for future pandemics so we don't need lockdown/release cycles, like they've been used in the West?
We need to reduce: number of people who are susceptible to a new pathogen (which leads to exponential growth) & hospitalizations/severe disease (which strains health services). Invest in science for solutions to both of these. We need rapid diagnostics, vaccines, & therapeutics.
Vaccines are our best route out of restrictions & can do the heavy lifting. Lockdowns are caused bc of the hospitalisation rate of this virus & the large # of susceptible people -> leads to exponential growth in cases & stretched health services. Vaccines address both. (thread)
Israel is a glimpse of the future & how to lift restrictions sustainably & let people mix -> vaccinate about 85% of over-16 population, start vaccinating children when approval given & build up testing (PCR, lateral flow & wastewater) to keep on top of outbreaks that emerge.
European countries & US sitting on unused AZ supply. They should give these doses abroad to countries that need & will use them. Supply is the biggest bottleneck now to getting vaccines out- not money or logistics. Vaccinating the world will help stop the emergence of variants.