Our team has put up a second working paper this week, this time looking at the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (eg lockdown) on the spread of #COVID19
with collaborators from @BlavatnikSchool @uvmlarnermed @EdinburghUni @OxUniMaths
(thread)
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
with collaborators from @BlavatnikSchool @uvmlarnermed @EdinburghUni @OxUniMaths
(thread)
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
I think everyone has understood, at least intuitively, that countries with stricter lockdown can control the virus better.
But the big take home message here is about the *speed* of government response; the *timing* is at least as important, if not moreso...
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But the big take home message here is about the *speed* of government response; the *timing* is at least as important, if not moreso...
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...this chart shows that the longer a country waited after their first case to implement stricter measures, the worse their peak death rate was.
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...and going forward this has clear implications for policymakers. Don't dilly-dally!
We've seen how this can play out in many places over the last few months. Acting quickly and dynamically can be a winning strategy.
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We've seen how this can play out in many places over the last few months. Acting quickly and dynamically can be a winning strategy.
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Shout out to all the people who worked on this, @annajessiep @angrist_noam @beakira @RobinNThompson @devisridhar, Sam Webster, Andy Hale, our 100+ person data team, and our indefatigable team captain @thomasnhale
also, here is the other working paper we uploaded this week, on the factors that seem to determine (or not) how different countries are responding.
