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Tanvi Madan Profile picture
@tanvi_madan
Jul 7, 2020 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Will be writing a piece on how Delhi might see 2020 elex. Will be some Qs abt a Biden admin (China policy, emph on human rts), but also some benefits if focus is on rejuvenating US, alliances & partnerships; less volatility. He is also a known quantity 1/3
#FatefulTriangle
There are some things this GoI has liked about a Trump admin -- competitive view of China, initial tough approach vs Pak, little focus on human rts
But hvn't liked - volatility/uncertainty, trade, immigration approach, some elements of China approach. 2/3
Finally, worth keeping in mind that India's liked Democrats & Republicans at different point. It's a relatively recent phenomenon that Indians think Rs are better for India.
(w/r/t Pakistan, it was a R president who turned to them for help recently) 3/3

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More from @tanvi_madan

Tanvi Madan Profile picture
Jun 15, 2023
🧵 Ahead of Indian PM Modi's state visit to the US, here are some slides on US-India ties.

Certain things become apparent
- ties go back to 1947 (or before) but, in some ways, cooperation is quite new, w/ a reset in 1999-2000
- it's a multi-domain mutually beneficial rel. 1/ Image
2/ 25 yrs ago, there were US sanctions on India.

Since then, the US & India have developed a range of bilateral dialogues at various levels & on various issues. They have also now formed groupings like the Quad & I2U2 Image
3/ The Quad (Australia, India, Japan, US) itself has a whole range of working groups and initiatives.

It, too, is fairly new -- only being revived in 2017 & elevated to the leader level in 2021. Image
Read 15 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
May 2, 2023
🧵 Some quick thoughts. On US investment in India’s utility, I think it depends on:

1. your expectations from it
2. if you think Taiwan contingency reax is only metric

On 1: I don’t think Biden admin expects India to engage in collective defence or defend liberal int’l order
1/
2/ Re collective defence, about a month ago, NSC Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific Kurt Campbell said,

“India is not an ally of the United States, and will never be an ally of the United States. But it does not mean that we will not be close partners and share many things.”
3/ In Oct. 2020, then Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun stated that the US was well aware of India’s emphasis on strategic autonomy, and the US did not seek an alliance with India. Image
Read 15 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
Oct 5, 2022
🧵 a question readers have asked is, wld India-China rels return to normal if Xi thought strategically & agreed to return to status quo ante at the border.

Short answer: I still don't believe 🇨🇳🇮🇳 ties can return to the track they were on in 2019, let alone 2003-

Here's why
1/
2/ Another version of ques is, will Modi seek/strike a deal with China?

Lil' doubt Modi wld like a stable border. Wld enable him to
- focus on econ
- buy time to enhance mil capabilities, border infra
- host successful G20 next year
- avoid border becoming 2024 re-election issue
3/ First, I think such a border deal unlikely. Wld require (as defined by GOI):
(a) disengagement at all friction points
(b) de-escalation

Even if (a) happened, unlikely China wld agree to (b), i.e. troop reduction & esp dismantling mil/other infra. So, India wldnt do it either
Read 8 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
Oct 4, 2022
🇮🇳🇺🇦
Readout of Indian PM Modi's call with Ukraine's President Zelenskyy

[Ukrainian PM after a mtg w Indian EAM Jaishankar had said "We count on India's support in providing grain corridors & demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station"]
pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa…
2/ Don't know what it's signaling, but the reference to the Nov. 2021 meeting is interesting.
3/ Even at the time, the Nov 2021 Modi-Zelenskyy meeting had been noteworthy (so was Modi's reported promise to visit Ukraine):
Read 4 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
Sep 16, 2022
Putin to Modi: "I know about your position on the conflict in Ukraine and I know about your concerns. I know that you share these concerns and we want all of this to end as soon as possible..." 1/
2/ Modi, who skipped his usual initial hug, to Putin:

"Today's era is not one of war, and I’ve talked to you about this on the phone several times…in the coming days, how we move towards the path of peace – we will definitely have an opportunity to discuss this."

[my transl.]
3/ In his initial remarks Modi also noted key concerns for developing countries – food security, fuel security, fertilizer supply problems -- saying, “we’ll have to find solutions and you will also have to take the initiative”
Read 9 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
Sep 14, 2022
🧵 since there've been 2 announced meetings of ambassadors from the Quad countries in the last couple of days, a thread about them... 1/
2/ The first public sign of Quad ambassadors meeting was this from Sept. 2020 when US permanent rep to NATO hosted in Brussels (it was Amb. Kay Bailey Hutchison then)
3/ Beyond the meeting yesterday, the representatives of the Quad member states to the UN have met regularly... ImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets

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