By my calc, in the past four years of Census data, non-college whites - Trump's base - have declined from 47.0% to 44.5% (-2.5%) of the nation's voting age citizens, including:
AZ: 44.9% to 42.0% (-2.9%)
FL: 45.1% to 41.9% (-3.2%)
TX: 35.1% to 32.3% (-2.7%)
AZ: 44.9% to 42.0% (-2.9%)
FL: 45.1% to 41.9% (-3.2%)
TX: 35.1% to 32.3% (-2.7%)
By my estimate, if turnout levels & partisan preferences among 1) non-college whites 2) college whites and 3) non-whites were to remain *constant* from 2016, Biden would flip:
Florida (29 EVs)
Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)
...based on demographic change alone.
Florida (29 EVs)
Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)
...based on demographic change alone.
Moreover, in AZ, demographic change alone (again, turnout/partisan preference remaining constant) might cut Trump's 2016 margin by more than half, from 3.5% to 1.6%.
In GA, demographic change alone might cut Trump's 2016 margin from 5.1% to 3.5%. In NC, from 3.7% to 2.4%.
In GA, demographic change alone might cut Trump's 2016 margin from 5.1% to 3.5%. In NC, from 3.7% to 2.4%.
Of course, there are a lot of caveats here. For example, there's some evidence Trump/Rs have actually recovered ground w/ Latinos in FL since 2016, hence R wins there in 2018.
And overall, demog change is still only a small component of Trump's weaker standing relative to 2016.
And overall, demog change is still only a small component of Trump's weaker standing relative to 2016.
