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Deaths stay elevated for a second day, a new trend underway?

Good things for the bulls is that money printing matters more for markets.

(1/4)
This leads deaths by 3 to 4 weeks and it keeps heading higher. Now a 7 week high.

(2/4)
And this leads hospitalizations by 1 to 2 weeks and it also keeps making new highs. Now over 60k/day.

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And the percentage of positive cases (top panel), rising to nearly a 2-month high meaning the case levels are not going down anytime soon.

(4/4)
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Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
The Dallas Fed has a "Mobility and Engagement Index" that aggregates all available mobility data.

Here is the chart of mobility by day of the week pre-shutdown.

We tended to be most mobile on Saturday and least mobile on Wednesday.

Note the scale.

(1/5) Image
Now here is the same chart on the left (orange) compared to how mobile we have been since April 1 (blue).

They are both on the same scale.

This radically shows the work at home effect and the shutdowns and the massive impact it is has on our mobility.

(2/5) Image
In one sense, this chart states the obvious. But, when you see how massive the disruption has been to everyone's lives, understand that the economic data we rely on is not equipped to reflect an economy that underwent this radical a change in such a short period of time.

(3/5)
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Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
National COVID-19 Hospitalizations bottomed on June 15 and is rising.

An increase of 10,000 in three weeks or 37%. Now at the highest level since late May.

(1/4)

@chrismartenson @ErikSTownsend @MishGEA @EpsilonTheory @ttmygh
National number of COVID-19 Patients in ICUs also bottomed on June 21. Its rise has been much slower (~10%) than hospitalizations (~37%).

But, it is important to note that serious cases (ICU) has stopped declining.

(2/4)
The number of tests has doubled in the last month (bottom panel). But so has the percentage of positive tests (top panel) and the highest since early/mid-May.

So, we are testing more and the number of positives is rising FASTER than the number of overall tests.

(3/4)
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Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
Jay Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow morning. The prepared text has already been released.

federalreserve.gov/newsevents/tes…

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The passage that caught my eye:

The tools that the Federal Reserve is using under its 13(3) authority are for times of emergency, such as the ones we have been living through. When economic and financial conditions improve, we will put these tools back in the
toolbox.

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Bernanke essentially said the same 12 years ago about QE. They never stopped it and are now doing it in record sizes.

If the Fed does exit, will a 5% to 10% correction get them back in?

The only way the Fed get out for good is the market rejects it (read: inflation).

(3/3)
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