Thread by @biancoresearch

The Dallas Fed has a "Mobility and Engagement Index" that aggregates all available mobility data.

Here is the chart of mobility by day of the week pre-shutdown.

We tended to be most mobile on Saturday and least mobile on Wednesday.

Note the scale.

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Now here is the same chart on the left (orange) compared to how mobile we have been since April 1 (blue).

They are both on the same scale.

This radically shows the work at home effect and the shutdowns and the massive impact it is has on our mobility.

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In one sense, this chart states the obvious. But, when you see how massive the disruption has been to everyone's lives, understand that the economic data we rely on is not equipped to reflect an economy that underwent this radical a change in such a short period of time.

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Is mobility is a leading indicator of the economy? Consider this chart. It seems to show that mobility leads the Fed's weekly economic Index (designed to measure the growth of the economy weekly). But, mobility seems to have stalled around mid-June.

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What also happened in mid-June? The case count turned higher.

Conclusion
It does not matter whether we have an official shutdown or not, if the case count does not peak soon, we are going to have an effective shutdown by everyone's voluntary actions.

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I'll save many from asking:

The infection data is bad and getting worse and no matter how long you stand on your head and rationalize, it cannot be dismissed.

The good news is the Fed's infinite printing press is burying markets in money and driving them higher.