Just witnessed it myself after I fulfilled my citizenry rights: long queues with minimal enforcement of social distancing, disposable gloves dispensed with just to speed up the process. In summary, holding an election amidst a pandemic is simply careless and opportunistic.
I’m not a political scientist who specialises in Singapore’s politics but as a concerned citizen born and bred in this tiny island city state, I’ll like to offer some observations. A long thread to share with those of you who may be keen on SG general elections yesterday. 1/
GE2020 results as shown. It’ll appear that PAP got an almost clean sweep of all 93 seats in the unicameral parliament, which might have fulfilled PM Lee’s call for a strong mandate amidst the pandemic crisis. But there’s much more than it meets the eye here. 2/ 
Total vote share of PAP this GE is 61.2%, a significant dip from 69.7% in the last GE in 2015 which was widely then attributed to the impact of the death of founding PM Lee Kuan Yew. So this GE % vote share for PAP is anything but a strong mandate. 3/
That the number of seats clinched in parliament isn’t proportionate to the vote share is attributed to a few structural factors, amongst which the “unique” group representation constituency system (think “buy 1 get 3-4 free” analogy) and the first-past-the-post rule. 4/
The almost 10% national average vote swing from the PAP to the opposition parties is significant in that not only it led to the loss of a second GRC (Seng Kang) since Aljunied fell in 2011, but overall opposition parties’ performance markedly improved. 5/
Strong opposition parties are few. WP worked hard and started small, first clinching Aljunied GRC in 2011 and now added Sengkang GRC to its slate. The new PSP led by former PAP lawmaker Tan Cheng Bock on average scored 40% of the votes despite debuting in this GE. 6/
SDP, once derided as being too slanted towards Westernised liberal democratic ideals that couldn’t find currency in conservative SG, also came out of this GE in better light. Chee Soon Juan and Paul Tambyah got over 40% votes in their single-ward fights. It’s on the uptrend. 7/
The other smaller and weaker opposition parties also acquitted themselves reasonably, considering the odds stacked against them. A newbie, Red Dot United (I know, it sounds like a soccer club), even got almost 25% against PAP anchored by a party heavyweight in Jurong GRC. 8/
And Reform Party team managed to eat away at the supposedly “safe” ward in Ang Mo Kio helmed by none other than PM Lee himself. The latter’s vote share pales after that of Tharman, who helms Jurong GRC and was once thought to be a favourite choice as future PM. 9/
A candidate from RP who contested in one of the single wards didn’t even show up for the televised political broadcast yet he managed to clinch almost 26% of the votes. Some veteran PAP MPs helming single wards found their vote share dip from the once comfortable 70% or more. 10/
The vote swing against PAP, and loss of Sengkang GRC, and near-losses for West Coast GRC simply signal no strong mandate, despite the artificially created system that guaranteed PAP an overwhelming and disproportionate number of parliamentary seats. 11/
Aljunied GRC polled better this round for WP than back in 2015, and this was all despite the highly publicised AHTC management issue and allegations by the PAP govt that was splashed on the state-controlled media. Strangely the AHTC issue went quiet before this GE. 12/
If anything, WP’s higher vote share for Aljunied GRC goes to show that voters aren’t necessarily taken in by what the media and govt portray issues. It’s a resounding rebuke at the PAP - stop all these medley of allegations, focus on the key issues of concern. 13/
WP team that snatched a second GRC from PAP did so on a tight margin, but the signal is also clear. Voters want more alternative voices in parliament; and regardless of party, it’s the quality of candidates that matters. We are after all a meritocracy isn’t it? 14/
PM-in-waiting Heng Swee Keat was at the last minute on nomination day “parachuted” into East Coast GRC. He might have saved the day for the PAP team, but a close shave considering the tight vote margins against him the young WP team spearheaded by Nicole Seah. 15/
There’s much lesson to dissect from East Coast GRC results. PAP team led by Heng as PM-in-waiting scored just slightly better than 53% of total votes. Fact that he’s the PM-in-waiting didn’t seem to cut ice with many voters. The result is dismal for Heng given his gravitas. 16/
Nicole Seah used to fight PAP in Marine Parade, then helmed by heavyweight senior minister Goh Chok Tong in 2011 and almost won under the National Solidarity Party’s banner. Now under WP, she was again repeating that feat, despite her youth against the PAP candidates. 17/
Murmurs from the ground in East Coast GRC were that there’s unhappiness with the PAP team, which was mostly MIA compared to the WP team working the ground. Nicole Seah herself is a born and bred East Coastie. PAP could have lost if not for Heng being parachuted in. 18/
More on Heng, and a reflection of the PAP’s narrative that Singaporeans aren’t ready for a non-Chinese PM. In fact, Heng himself said it in public that older generation citizens aren’t ready for a non-Chinese PM. I wonder how PAP gauges that. 19/ todayonline.com/singapore/olde…
I think that’s simply a false narrative advanced by PAP. That Tharman, a non-Chinese and once thought to be a future PM favourite, got almost 75% in the Jurong GRC he helms, shows clearly that Singaporeans value ability instead of race. 20/
There’s also an earlier example: PAP candidate Michael Palmer, a non-Chinese, was elected as MP in Punggol East SMC, an indication that Singaporeans do value ability over race. It’s simply baffling that PAP stuck with the misleading narrative on the contrary. 21/
I’ll summarise the lessons I drew out of this GE. First, there’s a clear limit to how much and long the incumbents can hide behind the shield of GRC system. It can serve their interests but also work against them. Sengkang GRC is a good example. 22/
Even if GRC persists, it’s not presumptuous to say that in the future, as the opposition draws more talents comparable to those that PAP attracts, the latter will gradually and steadily nibble at this unfair system. The GRC system will no longer become a “safe haven”. 23/
Second, using a crisis as a vehicle to seek strong mandate doesn’t seem to cut ice anymore. Considering this reduced vote share of PAP, clearly voters don’t see the pandemic as reason to give PAP a “blank cheque”. Voters are generally rational. 24/
If anything, PAP might have assumed that the pandemic means voters only seek a strong govt to advance policies. But clearly, while a strong govt and political stability is desired, voters increasingly emphasise on accountability and transparency via checks n balances. 25/
And holding an election amidst a pandemic crisis may have come across to voters as reckless and opportunistic on the part of PAP, and that the party may be perceived as pursuing selfish political agenda over public health and safety. It peeves voters for sure. 26/
We will likely expect a more livelier debate in parliament. Voters want policies debated but don’t seek gridlock, and this should have been an observation all parties will find hard to ignore. Overall it bodes well for SG’s democracy and governance. 27/
Will that mean seismic changes in the way SG does things in the future? Maybe a more compassionate govt that places the citizenry squarely in the center of policies, especially bread n butter issues. I’ll foresee little or no shift in defense and foreign policies. 28/
Thanks for reading this long thread that encapsulates whatever going on in my head over the past 1 week, over what’s likely 1 of world’s shortest electoral campaigns amidst such interesting times. Any comment and further discussion is welcome. 29/
At least for now and the next five years, I can be assured that my country is on the right track - a maturing democracy that brings new hope for the average Singaporean like myself, and I know I’ll have a hopeful future too for my kids and grandchildren. 30/
July 10, 2020 will go down in history as one of Singapore’s political milestones. The skies have turned more azure blue than ever over the east, the lightning has muted, and the young tree sprouting up in the west (my fellow Singaporeans may understand what I mean). 😉 END
Both responsible government and opposition matter. Moreover, 61% of the total vote share, accounting close to 10% swing from GE2015, can be called anything but "good results". It's honestly a poor showing for the PM's last term in office.
