,
24 tweets,
5 min read
Read on Twitter
THREAD: in the wake of the DW interview with Singapore defense minister Dr Ng Eng Hen there’s been some well-considered criticism amongst my foreign peers and colleagues about what he said. I want to offer my personal thoughts. See the said DW interview: m.dw.com/en/singapore-d…
1/ Singapore as a small country lacking geostrategic depth, surrounded by much bigger neighbours, is a geographical constant that we can’t change. We live with this reality, and make the best out of it. Ultimately, bottom line is that our national interests count.
2/ in pursuing our national interests, we ought to consider all opportunities and costs in our strategic calculus and seek a fine if often precarious balance between such competing and often contradictory factors, especially concerning foreign and security policy issues.
3/ many may say that SG ought to punch above the weight - that venerable Little Red Dot notwithstanding - because of our wealth and other power attributes. But fact of matter is that no matter what, SG is just a small piece of island estate.
4/ hence there’re expectations - well-meaning but possibly also misplaced in some instances - for SG to speak up and act in a righteous manner against what we observe as grievances in the international political scene. But often words don’t mean much, it’s action that counts.
5/ at the root of criticism about Ng’s replies in the DW interview is the apparent sense of strategic resignation towards what PRC has done in the SCS, to the point that SG is likely misconstrued as having accepted Beijing’s fait accompli and its continued behaviour.
6/ it’s in fact dangerous to conclude in this way, inasmuch as our actual foreign policy principles based on our geostrategic circumstances dictate. As a small country we continue to place an inordinate premium on preserving and furthering rule of law.
7/ it’s not even to do with altruism, but mere calculations of those abovementioned realities. Without rule of law, such as adherence to UNCLOS, SG as a geographically disadvantaged nation, without full access to maritime zones can be easily denied its rights and jurisdiction.
8/ so it’s really about national survival. Rule of law is the ultimate final frontier for a typical small state such as SG, given that its inherent geostrategic circumstances. There’s no way we can last in a long struggle against a much bigger and better endowed counterpart.
9/ as such, SG’s foreign policy principles loosely revolved around good neighborliness, sense of community, multilateralism, relevance to international community, and deterrence and defense continue to hold. In that equation, rule of law is that overarching, unchanging premise.
10/ because of this very reason, there’s no way SG can accept the “might is right” approach. It’s one thing to accept that PRC indeed built those fake islands in SCS, but that “acceptance” would mean only recognising this fact yet not rolling over and die just like that.
11/ this is where I thought there’s a plausible wrong choice of words Ng used. “Recognising” PRC’s actions only mean acknowledging what it’s done. And isn’t it a fact that those fake, militarised islands are there almost for good? Will Beijing renounce those possessions?
12/ can anyone go invade and capture those fake islands? Who’s going to do that? It seems only a natural phenomenon such as a major tsunami in SCS will be able to make these fake islands disappear. Otherwise, it’s not wrong to say it’s a fait accompli, you know it we know it.
13/ despite this, SG isn’t going to just let Beijing believe that this fait accompli will go unanswered. First, I need point out that the PCA ruling in 2016 continues to hold, SG continues to stick to that because it’s again, a manifestation of the rule of law.
14/ recall that SG is one of the first to publicly support the ruling. In fact we are such a prominent ASEAN voice to the point that we stood out like a sore thumb because of that stark contrast with our relatively quiet ASEAN neighbours. And you know what happened next.
15/ the infamous Terrex incident amongst other reprisals by Beijing merely for our speaking for what’s right only demonstrates that it’s better to refrain from a megaphone diplomacy. Refrain from that only means knowing when’s right time to speak up, and choice of words to use.
16/ since then, SG refrained from openly making such public stands but that said, we let action speak for itself. We continue to preserve and even enhance in several ways our defense and security engagements with friendly external powers, not least the US.
17/ providing military access to foreign powers, besides joint training and exercises, is our way of contributing towards credible, friendly military presence to counter attempts at undermining rule of law in the region, not least SCS.
18/ Ng is merely one minister out of a whole cabinet of SG ministers, and the entire national ecosystem of policy elites who deal with the issue. Solely judging SG based on 1 interview with 1 minister, without due consideration of what SG has concretely done, is unfair to us.
19/ will our friends prefer that we talk a lot more than we actually do? I only hope to share my views here as a Singaporean to help set the record straight, to highlight the country’s prevailing, often unchanging circumstances.
20/ Notwithstanding what criticisms are hurled at SG, fact of matter is that we will most likely keep at what we are already doing - strengthening ASEAN, preserving and enhancing engagements with friendly external powers, that including promoting security links with PRC.
21/ SG does not wish to choose sides, seriously. Even as a small country, we are dignified enough to do whatever we can to preserve and enhance our national interests, including our priceless strategic autonomy, taking into account those opportunities and challenges we face.
22/ since we are at it, remember that there’s really very limited things we can do. That includes the oft-cited suggestion that SG can serve as a honest broker in SCS. Truth of matter is we can’t, save for doing what we can to preserve peace and stability in the region.
23/ this is by far the longest thread I posted to date on Twitter, sharing my inner thoughts about this issue that really is consequential to a small country like SG. I apologise if my post miffed anyone, and I sincerely welcome all honest critique to what I wrote. END
