Welcome to the Macro Media Index: The most important macro content for June 2020.
This was an INSANE month. Social unrest and market disconnect. The Hertz bankruptcy bet.
If you want to understand the macroeconomic story right now, this thread is for you.
Let's dive in! 🧵👇
This was an INSANE month. Social unrest and market disconnect. The Hertz bankruptcy bet.
If you want to understand the macroeconomic story right now, this thread is for you.
Let's dive in! 🧵👇
2/ A quick note! If you’re more of the audio type, I did this best of macro content as a @BreakdownNLW podcast as well.
Check it out on @coindesk coindesk.com/inequality-soc…
Or subscribe and listen directly: nlwcrypto.libsyn.com/social-chaos-a…
Check it out on @coindesk coindesk.com/inequality-soc…
Or subscribe and listen directly: nlwcrypto.libsyn.com/social-chaos-a…
3/ The month kicked off with the realization - a stunning one to many to be sure - that not only had the market come screaming back after March lows - it had done so with record vigor.
4/ Some of the industries best thinkers came out and said that even they were somewhat surprised at just how well the Fed’s action would work.
5/ Of course, peel back the data a little bit and what you get is a tale of (at least) two markets. In this case, there is tech — and there is everything else.
6/ Then again, there are other tale of twos, as well - as @jessefelder explains. One is the absolute chasm between prices and profits. Another, as Jeremy Grantham put it, is the top 1% of stock market valuations and the bottom 1% of economic outcomes
thefelderreport.com/2020/06/24/the…
thefelderreport.com/2020/06/24/the…
7/ In such a strange context, there were some like @DTAPCAP who tried to ignore their priors and instead focus on what the data was telling them - a new asset/equities bull market.
8/ Others, like 2020 macro breakout superstar @LynAldenContact, pointed out that if you price the S&P500 in gold rather than dollars, the charts make a hell of a lot more sense.
9/ We also can’t discuss last month without discussing the massive social unrest. @vol_christopher made the point that, although the catalyst was discreet, the incredible rage and frustration had a bigger context
10/ @NorthmanTrader was a little more on the nose with it.
11/ However, for those looking for social unrest to show up in the markets, @krugermacro made the historical comparison to show that markets shrugging off upheaval was, in fact, the norm.
12/ Still, folks like @LukeGromen argued that there was more generational and historical significance to the upheaval than perhaps we were giving it credit for.
13/ @nic__carter brought #bitcoin into the story, arguing that while it couldn’t, on it’s own, fix the underlying problem, it was and is an important part of a new toolkit for a new age
14/ Still, if there is one thing that June 2020 markets will be remembered for, it’s the Robinhood Rally. @avichal captured many of us bitcoin’s folks sentiment when he said this:
15/ @PrestonPysh made the connection between the breakout sensation of @stoolpresidente and Portnoy’s recognition that the Fed is in the Shrute-buck-stocks-only-go-up-business, come hell or high-water
16/ There was nothing that better encapsulated the month than the Hertz bankruptcy bet. @krugermacro said it was the second nuttiest thing of the COVID-19 crisis, after sub-$0 oil
17/ @TheStalwart went farther, saying it was the craziest type of bubble he’d ever seen
18/ @jessefelder took up the mania tracking mantle and wrote “One fo the Ages” thefelderreport.com/2020/06/10/one…
19/ Remember earlier when @biancoresearch said that the thing he (and many) missed was how much retail was going to pick up what the Fed was putting down? This was the point.
20/ The finance history guy @jfc_3_ put it in some historical context - telling the story of an 1820s London scam that led to an 1860s London bubble.
21/ Topping even the best analysis, however, was the memes.
22/ Oh, the glorious, glorious memes
23/ Another meta macro theme that has been a key discussion throughout the year and continued last month was the status of the dollar and the question of inflation vs. deflation. @PrestonPysh again with an essential thread:
24/ For the deflation side of the conversation, look no farther than @priceoftomorrow author @jeffbooth
25/ @lynaldencontact, who many came into contact first through her incredibly cogent thinking on the dollar, shared this essential thread
26/ And then there was newblud @jturek18 who got himself on Real Vision earlier this year and wrote this thoughtful piece on whether the dollar is a “solved problem?”
27/ Stephen Roach has been screaming in any venue that will have him that the USD is set up for pain, and I thought @LukeGromen’s point that most of FinTwit has treated the argument with ridicule was particularly important
28/ To get more on Roach’s argument, reach this piece in Project Syndicate. H/T to @jessefelder for this recommendation project-syndicate.org/commentary/cov…
29/ A couple more pieces of content to review before we wrap
If you’re a millennial and have a sense that your generation may be, well, getting the shaft? Check out @Trinhnomics viral thread that basically says, Yup, you sure are.
If you’re a millennial and have a sense that your generation may be, well, getting the shaft? Check out @Trinhnomics viral thread that basically says, Yup, you sure are.
30/ One of the least discussed, most important things happening in the economy - and something to keep a close eye on - is the utter destruction of small and medium business and the concentration with giants. @chigrl as usual on top of it
31/ Finally, three incredible podcast recommendations for you.
First, Jeremy Grantham joined @patrick_oshag and it’s as essential as you might imagine investorfieldguide.com/jeremy-grantha…
First, Jeremy Grantham joined @patrick_oshag and it’s as essential as you might imagine investorfieldguide.com/jeremy-grantha…
32/ Second, one of the most broad thinkers and author of the new book “Think For Yourself” @mansharamani joined @ErikSTownsend on @MacroVoices macrovoices.com/856-macrovoice…
33/ Third, another one of the absolute breakout highlights of 2020 Macro Content is @GeorgeGammon Rebel Capitalist show. Check out his conversation with @JulietteJDI …-rebel-capitalist-show.simplecast.com/episodes/julie…
34/ Fourth and finally, if you just want raw macro firepower, you can’t go wrong with @ttmygh and @LukeGromen joining @PrestonPysh and @stig_brodersen theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/tip30…
35/ That’ll do it for the first Macro Media Index - The Best Macro Tweets, Podcast and Essays every month. If you want to hear this content instead of read it, sign up for emails at nlw.substack.com and subscribe to @BreakdownNLW podcast plnk.to/nlw?to=page
36/ Appendix - oops somehow this great opinion piece by @DiMartinoBooth on the real complexity of the current housing market slipped out - but absolutely worth a read and some deep consideration bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
