On this momentous night in #Bitcoin history, I’ve see a number of people ask “how could this possibly not cause the price to go up?”
My theory: individual events don’t impact bitcoin’s price, at least, not really and not alone.
Bitcoin markets seem driven by big, structural narratives that create raison d’etre for new entrants to participate.
We’ve been in one of those since March 2020: money-printer-go-brrr-means-inevitable-inflation-means-institutions-get in here.
Within the context of those meta narratives, individual events that validate and amplify the narrative can impact price - both by drawing new people in on the strength of the evidence for the narrative as well as by arming bulls and traders who are inclined to go long.
This new crop of critics pointing to the history of technology to explain why #bitcoin will inevitably be disrupted by something newer have totally missed that the most powerful forces in social technologies are not product features, but *network effects*
“Hurrrr but MySpace and Facebook.”
Yeah, and it’s been 15+ years since Facebook won. It has 2,800,000,000 users. Do we really think that nothing technologically better has come along in 15 years?
No, it’s the network effects.
“But bitcoin isn’t a social technology!”
Money is first and FOREMOST a social technology. By definition money is irrelevant without networks of people to exchange it. We just happen to call these networks markets.
3) When the markets DID start to finally react, bitcoiners were quick off the draw to point out that, whatever the risk the virus posed, the economic threat was significantly predetermined by fragility borne of decades of decisions.
Belarus is the most interesting story people aren't paying attention to:
-26 year dictator arrests popular YouTuber who plans to run for prez
-YouTuber's wife runs on promise to hold real elections 6 months later, gets huge support
-Dictator claims to win 80% of vote...
-Massive demonstrations begin, not just in the capital but in 20+ cities around the country
-Police are INCREDIBLY brutal. 6000+ arrested. Widespread reports of torture. Horrifying audio evidence of torture all over the internet.
-Some police shown renouncing dictator.
-Internet shut off for 4 days
-Only app even a little usable is Telegram, which says it activated "anti-censorship tools"
-The main TG channel coordinating efforts of ~2 million Belarusians was started as a music channel 5 years ago by a teenager and has 4 staff and no website
Honorable mention: Schnorr/Taproot have moved to the BIP stage, with important privacy implications. The only reason this isn't higher on the list is that I suspect we'll be talking about it a lot more in the weeks to come.
🤬#5 - Smart disagreement is one of the most important parts of public discourse, but we waste a lot of time on bullshit. If you think debate is important but bad arguments drive you nuts, you’ll love this guide on how NOT to critique Ethereum by @DZack23blog.theabacus.io/how-not-to-cri…
Twitter has become less & less hospitable for long-form content, so after much contemplation, LRS is moving to email-only mode. I'll still post the top 5 best pieces of content here, but for the rest, it's a subscribe.
For now, let's dive into the top 5!
TL;DR on the Week
1. Top-level discussion was all about the price action 2. A persistent sub-theme was questions in the battle between privacy and surveillance 3. Macro themes set the stage for Davos discussions this coming week.
TL;DR: A stage setting week where all the narratives competing for our attention in 2020:
China & govt digital currencies
Global regulatory arbitrage
Bitcoin halvening + bitcoin as a macro asset
Strap in, it's long reads time!
2/ The geopolitical situation underlying crypto this week was Iran’s missile response. As news broke, @travis_kling pointed out the price of bitcoin moving in parallel w gold & crude, as it had since the announcement of the killing of Suleimani.
3/ The next day, I had @Travis_kling join me on The Breakdown to discuss what this price action suggests in the ongoing debate about to what extent bitcoin is acting like a safe haven in times of geopolitical turbulence. coindesk.com/travis-kling-o…
This is the final recap of a year that saw IEOs, SEC action, Libra, gov’t digital currency efforts, DeFi, and so much more. Let’s take a trip back through LRS world, week by week throughout 2019!
A note on reading this: each week, I’ll post the week and LRS # along with a few words on the vibe or key events of the week, plus the highlight content. The content was chosen based on how clicked it was + my personal bias!
[LRS28 - Jan 6] Like any year, 2019 kicked off with a bevy of prediction posts, and among all of them it was @arjunblj that stood out. What’s notable looking back is how much crypto black swan events like Libra just weren’t on the horizon medium.com/@arjunblj/cryp…
The Breakdown podcast is right smack in the middle of a set of killer end of 2019 interviews. I asked each guest two questions:
1) What was the most important narrative of 2019? 2) What's one prediction for 2020?
The answers so far below 👇
First, @PeterMcCormack discussed the growth in global discontent (which, incidentally inspired him to launch Defiance) and predicted a continued bloodletting among non-BTC cryptoassets next year. plnk.to/nlw/e/10004605…
Next up, @Melt_Dem argued that the emergence of central bank digital currencies was the biggest big deal of 2019. When it comes to 2020, the variety of new financial products around bitcoin are poised to make this halvening extra extra. plnk.to/nlw/e/10004606…
THE ULTIMATE GUIDE TO BITCOIN + CRYPTO 2019 RECAPS and 2020 PREDICTIONS.
You asked for it, so here it is - all of the best insights on the year that was and the year to come. Strap in team, this is going to be a good one!
2/ Let’s kick it off with the first (and longest!) piece from this year, @MessariCrypto’s “Crypto Theses for 2020” - an 8-day fever dream from @twobitidiot himself covering just about every aspect of the industry.
3/ Even before you dive in, you can breeze through the 100+ comments to see the sort of discussion Ryan triggered. See for example, this conversation about what the most important narrative is for crypto right now. (Spoiler alert: ‘reinventing finance’)