Thread by @Barton_options

1/ Fallacy of applying population fatality rate to an individual.

Bad statistics. —> bad decision making

Assuming that 3month into the future, the infection fatality rate of COVID19 for 30-45yo male in the US turns out to be 0.6%, does that mean the risk of dying...

For someone in that age group, like me, is truly 0.6%?

Absolutely not, unless I have the average genetic make up and the average health of American men (nobody has that)

My risk is probably a lot higher or a lot lower depending on my actual genetic make up.

3/ an example here.

According to ZOCOR ( a statin med to lower cholesterol) insert, risk of having myopathy (muscle cramp, pain, rhabdo) is 0.08% at 40mg/day. that’s a number for an average American.

But for me, that risk is 60-80%. MyMom had myopathy on zocor.

Two of my dad’s siblings had myopathy on zocor. And I have compared their SNP data with mine, and have found good overlap on genes affecting statin-induced myopathy.

The point is that no one has the average American genetic make up, and our individual risk can be...

Orders of magnitude off from the average of the population. My risk is 60-80%, and your risk could be 1E-6. Both very off from 0.08%

We need to find out our own data, rather than blindly applying the population average to ourselves. It does NOT apply most of the time.

Back to COVID19, one thing that has been non-controversial is that it’s severity varies dramatically from person to person, among previously health people.

Genetics play huge roles, as many severe cases run in blood relatives( among siblings and parents, but not spouses)

End/ Do you know your and your family’s genetics well enough to take the risk?

Or would you really want to volunteer to be the sacrificial guinea pig for your parents/siblings/kids to test out how well genes of your family handle COVID19?

I don’t, and I social-distance.