Thread by @ASlavitt

COVID Update July 11: Donald Trump is projecting a “V” recovery as his strategy for re-election.

The problem is he hasn’t told the virus that. Or has he?

1/

Trump’s confident he can have his way with the economy, the stock market & the virus. Ever since he was a small child & tortured small animals & told the school that little boys were from Africa, he could talk his way out of anything. People listened to him. 2/

Trump is infatuated with his gift of gab. His gut. His smarts. Let’s call it what it is: his ability to be full of shit & get away with it.

So he tells the virus “you don’t exist,” “you’re going to disappear,” “you’re not that bad.”

And then oddly, nothing like that happens. 3/

What kind of virus is this not to listen?

“Wait, I actually have to do something? Like for real? That’s not my game. You see, virus, I’m not that kind of businessman. In real estate; I put my name on other people’s buildings. I don’t build them. I mean, have you met my kids?” 4/

“Look I gave you a couple weeks back in March because you had messed up the stock market. I talked about you at press conferences for days in a row.”

“That’s a lot for me. I mean you’re not that hot. I’ve lost interest. And you don’t love me enough. We’re through.” 5/

Trump believed he could get the virus to stop spreading just like he got Kim Jung-Un to stop his nuclear testing. 6/

“OK. What if we agree to a small payment? You’ll have to sign an NDA. Lawyers rules, what can I say? You’ll be rich forever.”

But cases grew & the economic opening started to close.7/

So he went to his can’t fail move.

“OK, this always works...Pretend you’re a Republican Senator. Now, DO EVERYTHING I SAY!”

Baffled that didn’t work, Trump realized he didn’t care. If ICE couldn’t get rid of the Chinese immigrant, why should he? 8/

Dodging responsibility always worked.

“Now, I’m not responsible for you. It’s in the Constitution. It says it’s the Democrat governors. Article V. For viruses.

So I’m not going to help the country figure out where you are or protect them from you. Not. My. Job.” 9/

“I don’t do problems that can be solved by pointy headed Faucis or do-gooders who don’t break laws, but problems that can be ‘fixed’ by my family. Like commuting sentences.” 10/

“I’m ordering everyone back to school & back to work. Hair styles & make up. That’s most of my budget. That should juice the economy.

Go back to school. We’re going to chain your teacher to the desk. And if they won’t come back, we’ll bring a good guy with a gun.” 11/

“99% of people aren’t going to die from you anyway. And by people— I mean white people.” 12/

So what about this “V” economy, this hiring of 30 million people in a couple months.

Well first let’s look at what kind of economy we’re talking about. After some personal service & restaurant workers were temporarily hired, what else? 13/

Office workers plan to stay home. Essential workers & service workers can’t. An unequal society that has long taken root, spreads it’s wings. 14/

The 40 million people at food banks doesn’t much bother Trump. They never could afford to stay at his hotels or golf at his golf courses. And he figures enough of them (the white ones) will vote for him because what scraps there are they won’t have to compete over w immigrants.15

But the things that really drive the economy are not coming back soon. People don’t feel comfortable traveling. Or attending events like conferences.

What happens to car buying? Office leases? Hiring?

Americans don’t see an effort to reduce cases, they’re not spending money.16/

Over the longer term, ppl expect the economy to change. Tens of millions working in travel, selling cars on commission, event planning & performing arts, may face a different world.

Other jobs, at both the bottom & top of the economy may grow. But those shifts are rough. 17/

https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1281974732095725569

If we still had fewer than 20k cases/day, a tragic amount in any other country in the world, bars, restaurants & schools, travel— might have a better chance.

But at 60k going to 70k, hospitalizations (or “hospitalizations” as Marco Rubio calls them), Trump’s BS won’t fly.18/

It’s the pandemic stupid (not my line).

Greg Abbott has become converted. He’s staring losses in the face & is now doing his best Andrew Cuomo impression: begging, threatening people not to go out, closing stuff down, pushing masks. In Texas! 19/

Trump may still have cultural pull over many of the people who still call themselves Republicans, but when you’ve lost Abbott, the dam is breaking.

Somehow actual events are overwhelming even his beautiful words.20/

For the economy to really move, something has to be done around the virus. Something like a lot of testing. Something like masks. Something like competence. Something like an effort. 21/

If the economy is built back better for the rich, Trump will call that big a win. Business can move from office leases into gated communities. Personal security. Helicopters. Those are the businesses that will win in the Trump economy. Stuff the virus can’t interfere with. 22/

“You can’t really touch me or my money. You may kill a few (hundred thousand) people but the economy will be great for me. Um, as long as bankruptcy laws exist.” 23/

We’re in for twists & turns unlike the economy has seen. A hesitant & slow recovery. Structural losses. Fear & incomprency driven. Good for some. But hardest on those hardest hit by the virus. And not subject to coaxing any more than the virus is. /end