1\ Around the world, "excess" deaths are moving into "deficit", confirming that COVID-19 merely harvested those on death's door (many of whom were only alive because of two consecutive years of mild flu)
Here is Europe in pronounced deficit:
Here is Europe in pronounced deficit:
2\ Although it would be better to average deaths over a few years to capture fluctuations in flu severity, we can already see 2020 excess deaths starting to bend back towards normalcy (despite no population adjustment!)
3\ We know lockdowns didn't work. Which invites the following observation:
2020 deaths exceed 2018 deaths by about the same amount that 2018 deaths exceeded 2016 deaths
So why didn't we suspend civil rights and cast the world's poor into unemployment in 2018?
2020 deaths exceed 2018 deaths by about the same amount that 2018 deaths exceeded 2016 deaths
So why didn't we suspend civil rights and cast the world's poor into unemployment in 2018?
4\ The answer cannot be "Because COVID-19 is novel"
Every flu is novel, which is why we still get it
If the specter of a 1918-style pandemic was the pretext for COVID-19 lockdowns, then we should also lock down every flu season
No, the honest answer is: "Because we panicked"
Every flu is novel, which is why we still get it
If the specter of a 1918-style pandemic was the pretext for COVID-19 lockdowns, then we should also lock down every flu season
No, the honest answer is: "Because we panicked"
5\ Addendum: when COVID-19 failed to generate meaningful *absolute* body counts, merchants of panic turned to standard deviations. Boy, these curves look scary!
6\ But you don't hear so much about standard deviations any more. How many folks who panicked when French deaths were 20 standard deviations high are celebrating that deaths are now 50 standard deviations low?
All that happened was a small time shifting of deaths.
All that happened was a small time shifting of deaths.
