1/ The grand COVID19 genetic lottery.
COVID is NOT flu. It is a much more complex multi-organ infectious disease.
The clinical course/severity vary greatly from person to person, so much so that Brigham&Women's hospitals' protocol is 21 Chapters long!
covidprotocols.org/all-chapters
COVID is NOT flu. It is a much more complex multi-organ infectious disease.
The clinical course/severity vary greatly from person to person, so much so that Brigham&Women's hospitals' protocol is 21 Chapters long!
covidprotocols.org/all-chapters
2/ COVID definitely gives people with comorbidity a harder time than a healthy person, but so does every other severe infectious disease.
For working-age healthy people, the severity and clinic course vary tremendously, probably to do with difference in genetics
For working-age healthy people, the severity and clinic course vary tremendously, probably to do with difference in genetics
3/ I call it a genetic lottery, because the severity appears to be run in blood relatives.
Actionable item: if you are a 30-something who had bad COVID symptoms, your parents should be very careful and proactive in dealing with COVID.
Actionable item: if you are a 30-something who had bad COVID symptoms, your parents should be very careful and proactive in dealing with COVID.
4/ COVID also elicits highly different immune responses in people, probably driven by genetics as well.
Some people generate robust interferon response quickly. Many don't. Some people can have IgG for 12-18 months. Some people can't keep their IgG level for 12 weeks.
Some people generate robust interferon response quickly. Many don't. Some people can have IgG for 12-18 months. Some people can't keep their IgG level for 12 weeks.
5/ and thus we start to see repeated infections now (8-12 weeks after the first wave)
Yes, there are T-cell mediated immunity, but if you are 35+, don't count on it.
teenagers have strong T-cell immunity, but still get other coronavirus many times a year
Yes, there are T-cell mediated immunity, but if you are 35+, don't count on it.
teenagers have strong T-cell immunity, but still get other coronavirus many times a year
6/ Do you know how your immune response to COVID is?
I don't, even though I've studied immunology for a long time. And genetics affect immune system also from many metabolic pathways (genetics)
Just think how hard it is to eradicate allergy/asthma? COVID is a much harder issue
I don't, even though I've studied immunology for a long time. And genetics affect immune system also from many metabolic pathways (genetics)
Just think how hard it is to eradicate allergy/asthma? COVID is a much harder issue
7/ Without research-grade testing and study, this is again a genetic lottery in terms of how long your immunity may last, and how frequently you may come down with COVID19 again and again,
either spreading it over and over
or being miserable/sick over and over.
either spreading it over and over
or being miserable/sick over and over.
8/ Herd immunity is likely (80% chance) to be transient and elusive. BEFORE vaccines are abundant enough for booster shots at 3-4-month intervals, perusing herd immunity is akin to a gradual culling of the genetically unfortunate (could be 5-6% of the population)
9/ The only federal agency that will attempt to deal with this mess gun-blazing would be the Fed, and with the wrong tool.
So more QE, more housing bubble, more SPX bail out,
while the PR machine continues to make people believe this is a litmus test or a conspiracy
So more QE, more housing bubble, more SPX bail out,
while the PR machine continues to make people believe this is a litmus test or a conspiracy
10/ To sum up, protect yourself and your family. Take the long view: think about the 50-60 years of freedom and life you can enjoy post-COVID, not the happy hour next Friday, or the pool party next weekend.
11/ We still don't know enough about our odds in this grand COVID lottery, but we always have the choice not to play it by protecting ourselves with masks and social distancing...
12/ outbreaks, soft lockdowns will go on and repeat many times in various parts of the country for the next 12 months, given our PR-and-QE-centric response to COVID.
we have one shot in Nov to make a major change, but the course of the pandemic is set otherwise. (END)
we have one shot in Nov to make a major change, but the course of the pandemic is set otherwise. (END)
