I read a lot about COVID-19 and immunity and if your priors aren't something like "there's immunity in the short run and then it's complicated and uncertain in the long run" then I'd suggest you read more about it.
A lot of headlines and tweets about this subject are misleading.
A lot of headlines and tweets about this subject are misleading.
Also, be wary of anecdotal stories about people getting "re-infected". Some may be true. Some may be false positives or people that were sick the whole time. COVID is weird; the immune system is weird. Things that *can* happen aren't necessarily *common*.
To illustrate the point: a prediction market estimates that 99.7% of people who had COVID will still be immune after 6 months. If that were true (have no idea) would be pretty good news but you'd ALSO expect to see reports of reinfection among the 0.3%.
metaculus.com/COVID-19/
metaculus.com/COVID-19/
