Thread by @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths
Today: 327
Yesterday: 476
One week ago (7/6): 242

Newly reported cases
T: 58K
Y: 61K
7/6: 47K

Newly reported tests
T: 721K
Y: 727K
7/6: 520K

Positive test rate
T: 8.1%
Y: 8.4%
7/6: 9.1%

This is all very bad relative to what the data looked like a few weeks ago.

It is also slightly less bad relative to some recent days.

But Mondays (which mostly reflect what happened on Sunday) are often pretty slow.

Good that the positive test rate has flattened out a bit.

Among the "terrible trio": Arizona does seem to show some flattening, which makes sense since it was the earliest of the three to spike. And positive test rates have fallen in Florida, although they're reporting *lots* of cases (and tests). Jury is still out on Texas.

It's hard to speak about any of this with very much confidence since there are long lags in processing tests.

And even if cases have plateaued in those states, deaths lag relative to cases and could keep growing.

Plus, there are lots of other states to worry about.