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🔵Extensive analysis and prediction of MCI lineups🔵

In the following I venture into the inevitable failure of trying to predict Pep's wheel of rotation madness using patterns and logic (lol).

Likes and RT's are much appreciate.

LEGGO 👇
#FPL #FPLCommunity
1)
Pep have lined up in 4-3-3 six times and 4-2-3-1 two times since restart. I've divided the players into Mids and Forwards based on their position in these systems, where the 10-position is a Mid as only Dilva and KDb played it.

Only Bilva played in both lines.
2)
When examining the midfield setup, Pep prefers to play one holding mid (Gündo/Rodri/Fernandinho) and two attacking mids (Dilva/Bilva/KDB) - this was deployed in 5/8 games. In two of the remaining games, a mid of KDB and two holding mids were played.
3)
The "2 x holding + KDB"-formation was used in arguably the two hardest fixtures - home til LIV and away to CHE, suggesting a more cautious approach to better opponents.

The same formation was used against MUN and Real Madrid before COVID19 as well.
4)
Looking at the remaining schedule, I only predict this formation to be used if MCI advance to the FA Cup final and face either MUN/CHE.

Therefore, the most likely formation in each of the remaining fixtures are 4-3-3 with only one holding mid.
5)
Looking at numbers of starts, Pep by far favours Mahrez, Sterling and Jesus as forwards with min. 6 starts each.

Bilva only started as a forward once - back in GW31+ in a horribel performance as false 9.

Foden have 3 starts - all when either Sterling or Mahrez was rested.
6)
Pep's favoured front 3 have started together in 4/8 games, with other combinations happening only 1 time each, suggesting Foden and Bilva is only used to rest the starters.

I would predict these three getting 3 starts each in the remaining 4 games.
7)
Having almost excluded Bilva from the forwards, he, Dilva and KDB is suggested to divide the starts as the two attacking mids between them.

KDB and Dilva both started min. 5/8 games and is suggested to be favoured. However, Dilva will have his minutes managed.
8)
Looking at the importance of the remaining fixtures, the FA Cup semi is by far the most important.

The only two games where the same attacking 5 have plaved together was the FA Cup quarter and the first fixtures after restart, suggesting this is the preferred.
9)
I predict Pep will line up with Jesus/Sterling/Mahrez and Dilva/KDB/Gündo in the FA Cup and managing key players minutes around this fixture.

So who will start the upcoming matches?
10)
At no point has Pep played the same 3 forwards or the same 3 mids in two consecutive games, so I expect changes in both lines.

At no point has both Dilva and KDB been rested. The same goes with Sterling and Mahrez. At least one of each pair is expected to start.
11)
If an regular attacking player (Jesus/Sterling/Mahrez or KDB/Dilva) was subbed before 75' min, he started the next game in 8/11 cases. The 3 cases were Mahrez and Sterling after having started 4 consecutive games and Dilva against LIV, where Pep changed to 2 holding mids.
12)
Jesus have started every game but the first after Aguero's injury, suggesting Pep is trusting him up front. His minutes were managed in the last 2 games suggesting he would be fresh to start again.

I predict Jesus will start all remaining fixtures with early subs.
13)
Having played the last 3 games and 90 mins. in GW35+, Mahrez is due a rest with Foden rested and ready.
The winger-pairing suggest this means another start for Sterling.

Dilva is expected to replace either KDB or Bilva, but being subbed in 64', I would predict KDB to start.
14)
DISCLAIMER‼️

This is educated guessing, but nonetheless guessing :) Use the chart to make your own predictings, and if you disagree, comment below 👇
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Keep Current with Nick #FPL

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