And with special relevance to this latest Ivanka Trump brainwave ... Americans look at the present First Family and almost unanimously agree: #findsomethingnewnytimes.com/2019/04/01/us/…
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In 2018, protesters against gasoline tax demonstrated in Paris. A radical few set fires near the Arc de Triomphe, creating scenes of chaos for social media platforms - like the iconic image below. (THREAD)
To the consumer of social media, it must have looked as if France hovered on the brink of revolution in 2018. Paris engulfed in flames! (2/x)
Here's how things looked to Parisians, though. Some agitator poured gasoline on a bike at a distance from the Arc, set it on fire, and then photographed the monument through the black smoke created by burning tires. (3/x)
Here's the decision just won by @IlyaSomin and allies striking down Trump's tariffs as an abuse of presidential emergency authority. It's blinking inspiring. (thread) cit.uscourts.gov/sites/cit/file…
The Trump administration argued that US federal courts must accept presidential claims of "emergency" at face value, no matter how manifestly nonsensical and in bad faith those claims in fact are. The US Court of International Trade said, in effect, "not so fast."
Courteously but forcefully, the Court demonstrated that Trump's actions are only tenuously related to the pretextual emergency Trump proclaimed. Trade is a congressional domain, and Trump abused the constitutionally limited power Congress delegated him.
President Trump and his family are extorting billions of dollars from US companies and foreign nations. In new piece for @TheAtlantic I examine past US corruption - and conclude Trump can't be compared to anything American, only Russia or Africa. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Today's @TheAtlantic piece linked above is supplement to monologue on the David Frum Show today. Trump's analogues are not Nixon, Harding, or Grant. They are Putin, Mobutu Sese Soko, and the Duvaliers in Haiti.
@TheAtlantic I once owned a dog who avidly chased squirrels, but looked away when he met a deer. My wife explained: "Some things are too big to see." I recall that saying when journalists get excited over "Biden was addled" and ignore "Trump is a Putin- or Mobutu-scale crook."
Donald Trump's approval rating in his first term moved in a narrow band: never above 50%, but also seldom below 40%, and then not much below. 1/x
Even during COVID, Trump's supporters stayed true. Unhappy as they were during COVID, Trump supporters agreed to shift blame for their unhappiness to somebody else: blue-state governors, Dr Fauci, etc. 2/x
But what if the US is struck by a disaster that is undeniably Trump's doing? Financial markets *predict* the disaster, but are not themselves the disaster. Few Americans have yet lost jobs, prices are only beginning to rise, shops are still full of goods to buy. 3/x
First-term Trump was also an economic idiot. He imposed escalating tariffs in first half of 2018, not only on China but on EU and Canada too. Trump bad policy triggered a big stock slump in second half 2018. 1/x
Trump worried that the bad stock market of 2018 might dim his re-election chances. He spent much of 2019 desperately pleading with the Chinese for an exit from the trade war he started the year before. 2/x
Trump's eagerness for a China deal to save his re-election was a reason that he dismissed the gathering warnings of a new pandemic in China. He failed to protect the country because he was trying to protect himself. Here's Trump in January 2020: 3/x
There are 2 economic ideas behind the Trump tariffs. One is obviously very stupid. The other is also very stupid, but less obviously so.
(thread)
The obviously stupid idea is that America should return to the industrial self-sufficiency of 1913 without regard to cost or value. Americans should manufacture their own athletic shoes and door hinges and plastic tubs, and if that requires a 125% protective tariff ... so be it!
The less obviously stupid idea posits that the true justification for tariffs is not the trade balance, but the capital account. Foreigners are placing too much capital in the US. That flow raises the value of the dollar. US imports become too cheap; US exports too costly.