One of the proxies for China's fx intervention (the PBOC balance sheet data, with assets reported at historical cost) is out, and it shows no purchases or sales to speak of in June ...
Then again, this series has been flat for the last 18ms ...
1/n
Then again, this series has been flat for the last 18ms ...
1/n
The series is in fact a bit too flat -- doesn't seem to show any interest income (returns to reserve management?).
Settlement (not yet out for June) has been more interesting, as it has shown purchases recently
2/n
Settlement (not yet out for June) has been more interesting, as it has shown purchases recently
2/n
The CNY is now below its 08/09 levels v the USD (USD has appreciated since then broadly, so China's RER is also up), and 10-15% below its pre-2015 depreciation levels.
That's a non-trivial move -- and part of the deeper reason (imo) why China's exports have been resilient
3/n
That's a non-trivial move -- and part of the deeper reason (imo) why China's exports have been resilient
3/n
Exports globally held up relatively well amid the trade war with the US in late 2018 and 2019 ...
& once we have full q2 data it will be clear that Chinese exports are now wildly outperforming global trade.
Mostly that's being open when others were shut, but currency matters
& once we have full q2 data it will be clear that Chinese exports are now wildly outperforming global trade.
Mostly that's being open when others were shut, but currency matters
