Thread by @NoTeamsIndy

GENERAL ELECTION THREAD

7/15 UPDATE on @JoeBiden / Trump matchup:

Biden +9.4% nationally, 4.1% HIGHER than Clinton at this point in 2016

Biden stronger than Clinton in 14 of 18 swing states (no NE-2 or MT polls by 7/15/16)

Biden states = 303 EV, while Clinton on 7/15/16 = 227

NOTES:

1. A-B rated polls (per 538.com ratings); one lower-rated poll used if A-B unavailable (marked "*")

1a. RV/LV only

2. Lean = ≥5% / Likely = ≥10% / Solid = ≥20%

3. “Battleground states”: ≥10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

Polling versus forecasts

A1. 2016 polling *averages* were ACCURATE (≥5%), nat'l + swing states, except WI/IA

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

A1a. Most election *forecasts*—which this thread is NOT—weren't. 538's forecast largely matched odds from Trump’s internal pollsters at ~30%

A2. Biden swing-state margins vs. Trump 3.6% better than Clinton’s (pic 1)

BUT average undecideds in swing states 7.7% in 2020, less than HALF of the 19.4% at this point in 2016. Also, Biden’s lead is larger than ALL remaining undecideds in EIGHT states, NONE for Clinton (pic 2)

A2a. That's because 2020 general electorate ALREADY more engaged than voters on Election Day in 2016, 2012, or even Obama’s first election in 2008! This question isn't asked very often by pollsters, but both 2020 polls that did found ~80% "very/extremely interested."

A3. Biden should be weaker than Clinton, since he's running against an incumbent, who've won re-election 11 of 13 times since 1916 (LBJ, Truman didn't run)

Per @ForecasterEnten, Biden's in the strongest position of any challenger in modern polling

cnn.com/2020/05/31/pol…

A3a. Enten further notes that the only incumbent in modern polling to come back after trailing as badly as Trump is now was Truman in 1948. Carter was in a similar position in 1980, and lost by 440 electoral votes.

cnn.com/2020/06/27/pol…

(A3a) And as much as trailing candidates love the Truman story and the famous pic from 1948 ("Dewey Defeats Truman!", polling methods have been fundamentally changed since then, not least by moving away from an approach known as “quote sampling”:

math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/…

A3b. Biden hasn't trailed in a SINGLE nat'l poll by an A-B rated pollster in 2016. Clinton trailed in SIX by 7/15/16. Just FOUR ties for Biden (one for Clinton), and only one w/undecided factor ≥10% (Atlas 2/3: 45/45); in other words, when voters break, they break for Biden.

A3b. In fact, Biden’s lead is STEADIEST in modern polling. Why? Because, as expressed in a phrase from the campaign, “WE KNOW JOE.” This is what's kept him ahead, despite the onslaught of smears and criticisms coming from the far right and left.

cnn.com/2020/05/10/pol…

A4. Past "Dem states" like WI, ME more competitive now, becoming toss-ups (WI) or leaners (ME). Same for "GOP states" like VA, AZ.

Partly demographic changes, partly sentiment. Point is, 2016/20 comparisons never exactly equal

newsweek.com/us-state-popul…

fivethirtyeight.com/features/ameri…

Here’s a chart on how states compare to nat’l average in 2020:

fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-b…

So why all these comparisons to the last election? First, there are some valuable contrasts to be made, especially since Biden’s running against the same opponent.

But mostly, it’s cuz if ya don’t, people who don’t like the data will just lazily say "BUT 2016!!!"

B1. How's he doing it? Per A/B-rated nat’l polls (6/15-7/15) vs 2016 exits, he's outperforming Clinton:

White: +14 (-6/-20)
Wh/college: +27 (+24/-3)
Wh/no coll: +17 (-20/-37)
Men: +11 (even/-11)
18-29 yrs: +20 (+39/+19)
Over 65: +9 (+2/-7)
Indy: +13 (+9/-4)
Moderate +22 (+30/+8)

B1a. The most noteworthy of these is that Biden's just ~5% behind Trump with white voters. No Dem's won this group since LBJ in '64. Only others this close were Carter 76, Clinton 92/96, and Obama 08, the last three Dems to win the presidency. All others lost them by 10-20%+.

B1a. He's also doing much better than Clinton with white college graduates, a group that’s been a key swing demographic since 1988. More importantly, he’s doing 17% (!!!) better with white voters who didn't go to college, a group that turned out BIG for Trump in 2016.

B1b. Next is being even with men. Again, the last three to do it were Carter 76, Clinton 92/96, and Obama 08, all others lost by 10-20%+. He’s winning another traditional GOP bloc, voters over 65, which all winning Dems have held since Carter.

B1b. Biden is absolutely OWNING the political middle, doing 13% better with independents than Clinton, and 22% (!!!) better with moderates. He’s also doing 11% better with liberals (85-8 vs. 81-14), and holding the same with conservatives (18-75 vs. 17-79).

B1c. Some have suggested Biden has a weakness with Hispanic voters, but like with black voters, Trump’s running a point behind his 2016 numbers, and the only difference between Biden and Clinton’s numbers are the undecideds. Work to do, but not trailing.

B1c. The other myth these numbers explode is that Biden's struggling with young voters. While pollsters divide age groups differently (e.g., 18-29 vs. 18-34, 30-44 vs. 35-50), he’s currently running 20% BETTER than Clinton with the youngest group, 18-29.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden…

B1c. One last myth to put to bed is that Biden struggles with liberals. In fact, he’s doing 9% better than Clinton, AND he’s doing 20% better with moderates, which is fueled by Trump getting 15% less than 2016. Conservative numbers largely match Clinton.

B2. In May, The Hill noted voters who dislike both break HARD for Biden: NBC nat’l (60-10%), Civiqs nat’l (60-2%), OH Predictive Insights AZ (63-6), and Civiqs GA (60-2)

Trump won them by 10% in '16, but they didn’t break for him until OCTOBER!

thehill.com/homenews/campa…

B2. Also in May, CNN polled "double likers" (a group about the same size as "haters"). They favor Trump by ~40, but advantage is Biden's, since likers less likely to be swayed by smears than their counterparts (esp w/Trump’s higher "very unfavorable").

cnn.com/2020/05/13/pol…

B3. One reason Biden's doing so well? Voters just LIKE Biden more than Trump:

Biden's overall un/favorable are positive (+4%), and more importantly, it is 20% BETTER than Trump, whereas Clinton’s rating was only slightly better than Trump's in 2016.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/ameri…

B3a. Also, the percent of respondents who rate Trump "very" or "highly" unfavorable is consistently MUCH worse for Trump, currently 16% higher than Biden!

B3b. This reflects Trump’s job approval, which is the lowest in overall average of any president in modern polling.

At the midpoint of his third year, Trump's closest to the last two incumbents who lost re-election, GHW Bush and Carter (Ford served for only 2-1/2 years).

B4. Some polls show voters less enthusiastic to vote for Biden than Trump, but enthusiasm is about turning out the party base, and in the Dem primaries (also the 2018 midterms), it's the desire to beat Trump that's turned out record numbers.

4a. A recent poll found 80% of Biden voters have a very unfavorable view of Trump, but vice-versa just 54%. Also, voting AGAINST a candidate has become more powerful than voting for in the 21st century. Again, advantage Biden.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-t…

Speaking of turning out, remember that polls can CHANGE, as we see from the polling maps of July 2016 and Election Day. Whatever the polls say, they don’t mean anything unless you show up and VOTE!

So in closing, VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!