Memphis/Shelby County Covid Update
tl;dr
- record 338 cases/day this wk
- cases growing 10x faster than testing since ph2
- results taking 2wks
- record 14.9%pos
- hosp/icu >90%
- we are at crisis level!
- oh, and 30% of kids in fl tested pos...but school?
- we must reverse!
1/
tl;dr
- record 338 cases/day this wk
- cases growing 10x faster than testing since ph2
- results taking 2wks
- record 14.9%pos
- hosp/icu >90%
- we are at crisis level!
- oh, and 30% of kids in fl tested pos...but school?
- we must reverse!
1/
<new chart alert>
this compares the 14-day growth rate of covid cases w/the 14-day growth rate of tests
- jun6 is when testing growth fell below case growth
- testing is still growing, but cases are growing much faster, abt 70% faster in fact
- lack of testing is a crisis!
2/
this compares the 14-day growth rate of covid cases w/the 14-day growth rate of tests
- jun6 is when testing growth fell below case growth
- testing is still growing, but cases are growing much faster, abt 70% faster in fact
- lack of testing is a crisis!
2/
<let me pause for a sec>
join me + hundreds (can we make it thousands?) of parents, teachers, & sch staff on tuesday to demand safe schools
- nashville has already decided it's not safe
- memphis needs to protect students, families, & staff
- please share
<back to the data>
3/
join me + hundreds (can we make it thousands?) of parents, teachers, & sch staff on tuesday to demand safe schools
- nashville has already decided it's not safe
- memphis needs to protect students, families, & staff
- please share
<back to the data>
3/
total covid cases [note: all charts = since reopening]
- notice how the cases continue to rise up above the trendline
- it's hard to see bc the trendline keeps moving up, but cases jumped above the trendline starting wk of may24, then really took off wk of jun13 (see here)
4/
- notice how the cases continue to rise up above the trendline
- it's hard to see bc the trendline keeps moving up, but cases jumped above the trendline starting wk of may24, then really took off wk of jun13 (see here)
4/
new covid cases per day
- the big thing to notice here is just how noisy the data are
- this is important bc we know tons of ppl are seeking testing, so this points to inconsistencies w/labs
- low cases =/= low cases
- low cases = low test processing
- we are missing cases
5/
- the big thing to notice here is just how noisy the data are
- this is important bc we know tons of ppl are seeking testing, so this points to inconsistencies w/labs
- low cases =/= low cases
- low cases = low test processing
- we are missing cases
5/
new cases per day per wk
- we're avg'ing 338 new cases/day this wk, which you can see would be a new high
- that's +17% over last wk, +7% over wk before
- note: testing only up 6% over last wk, is actually -11% from wk before
- the lack of testing says we're missing cases
6/
- we're avg'ing 338 new cases/day this wk, which you can see would be a new high
- that's +17% over last wk, +7% over wk before
- note: testing only up 6% over last wk, is actually -11% from wk before
- the lack of testing says we're missing cases
6/
covid tests per day per wk
- notice that tests/day is below the trendline, again...and 11% below 2wks ago
- cases/wk are up 337% since wk of phase2
- but tests/wk are only up 38%
- cases have grown almost 10x faster!
- the lack of testing is a real emergency!
7/
- notice that tests/day is below the trendline, again...and 11% below 2wks ago
- cases/wk are up 337% since wk of phase2
- but tests/wk are only up 38%
- cases have grown almost 10x faster!
- the lack of testing is a real emergency!
7/
covid tests per day
- we know more ppl are getting tested, but labs can't process them fast enough
- that's a big problem, it means spread is happening while ppl wait for results
- but it's not just labs, we also just don't have enough tests
8/
- we know more ppl are getting tested, but labs can't process them fast enough
- that's a big problem, it means spread is happening while ppl wait for results
- but it's not just labs, we also just don't have enough tests
8/
total covid tests
- this does lift off the trendline a little, but barely
- compare this to the chart for total cases
- you can see the difference easily
9/
- this does lift off the trendline a little, but barely
- compare this to the chart for total cases
- you can see the difference easily
9/
covid positivity rate per wk
- at 14.9%pos, we're on pace for a 3rd straight record-setting wk
- note: the goal is to be under 5%, really want under 3%
- anything over 10% means we're missing significant cases
- we've been over 10% for 5 wks now
- this is a disaster!
10/
- at 14.9%pos, we're on pace for a 3rd straight record-setting wk
- note: the goal is to be under 5%, really want under 3%
- anything over 10% means we're missing significant cases
- we've been over 10% for 5 wks now
- this is a disaster!
10/
covid positivity rate
- the yellow line (5-day avg) has now been over 10% for 19 days straight, 12 days over 13%, equaling a record-high 14.6%
- today's 18.1% was the 3rd highest ever (2 days in apr were higher, but both days had ~350 tests)
11/
- the yellow line (5-day avg) has now been over 10% for 19 days straight, 12 days over 13%, equaling a record-high 14.6%
- today's 18.1% was the 3rd highest ever (2 days in apr were higher, but both days had ~350 tests)
11/
more on positivity rates
- watch the blue line hit a high of 9.9% on apr18
- then it falls steadily and plateaus at 6.8% late-may/early-june
- and it starts to rise early-june to 9.1% today
12/
- watch the blue line hit a high of 9.9% on apr18
- then it falls steadily and plateaus at 6.8% late-may/early-june
- and it starts to rise early-june to 9.1% today
12/
hospitals
- acute care beds at at 91% full
- icu beds are at 90%
- i don't know much about hospitals, but i do know they made anything over 90% red for a reason
- how soon until we run out of beds?
13/
- acute care beds at at 91% full
- icu beds are at 90%
- i don't know much about hospitals, but i do know they made anything over 90% red for a reason
- how soon until we run out of beds?
13/
covid projections (not predictions)
- we just hit 14k total cases
- we're growing at about a 2.5% daily rate
- that puts us on pace to hit 50k on sept3
- and then we'll hit 100k on oct1
- we'll hit 250k on nov7
- and we'll hit 500k on dec5
- welcome to exponential growth!
14/
- we just hit 14k total cases
- we're growing at about a 2.5% daily rate
- that puts us on pace to hit 50k on sept3
- and then we'll hit 100k on oct1
- we'll hit 250k on nov7
- and we'll hit 500k on dec5
- welcome to exponential growth!
14/
what to do?
- well, the first thing we must do is admit we have a problem
- according to @HarvardGH, stay-at-home orders are necessary!
- in fact, we passed their "tipping point" over 2wks ago!
- so how are we still in phase2?
- we must *at least* go back to phase1, now!
15/
- well, the first thing we must do is admit we have a problem
- according to @HarvardGH, stay-at-home orders are necessary!
- in fact, we passed their "tipping point" over 2wks ago!
- so how are we still in phase2?
- we must *at least* go back to phase1, now!
15/
set a new vision
- so far, we have tried mitigation
- but what we and so many others have learned the hard way is that mitigation doesn't work
- we must change the goal to suppression
- look at the chart of tennessee's mitigation vs italy's suppression to see the difference
16/
- so far, we have tried mitigation
- but what we and so many others have learned the hard way is that mitigation doesn't work
- we must change the goal to suppression
- look at the chart of tennessee's mitigation vs italy's suppression to see the difference
16/
it all starts with testing
- to suppress the virus, you have to be able to see the virus
- trump keeps calling the virus invisible
- well, it's only invisible when you aren't testing enough
- this is a nat'l problem, btw, as you can see
- don't blame local officials for this
17/
- to suppress the virus, you have to be able to see the virus
- trump keeps calling the virus invisible
- well, it's only invisible when you aren't testing enough
- this is a nat'l problem, btw, as you can see
- don't blame local officials for this
17/
how much testing is needed?
- this <new> chart shows just how far off we are
- we're currently testing 2267 tests/day this wk
- to get the %pos down to 5% we would need to triple testing
- to get to suppression level, under 3%, we would need 11500 tests/day (over 5x current)
18/
- this <new> chart shows just how far off we are
- we're currently testing 2267 tests/day this wk
- to get the %pos down to 5% we would need to triple testing
- to get to suppression level, under 3%, we would need 11500 tests/day (over 5x current)
18/
just be honest
- our local leaders cannot control testing
- but they can control what they tell us
- and they need to be straight with us
- the truth is, there's no way to suppress the virus unless we increase daily testing five-fold
- the public needs to understand this
19/
- our local leaders cannot control testing
- but they can control what they tell us
- and they need to be straight with us
- the truth is, there's no way to suppress the virus unless we increase daily testing five-fold
- the public needs to understand this
19/
we need a functional congress
- i blame local leaders for not being honest
- but the real problem is congress
- local govt has to stay within budget, which is impossible when revenue is lost bc of closed biz
- congress is forcing govt to reopen to get tax $ to function
20/
- i blame local leaders for not being honest
- but the real problem is congress
- local govt has to stay within budget, which is impossible when revenue is lost bc of closed biz
- congress is forcing govt to reopen to get tax $ to function
20/
ppl need $
- local leaders are also looking at massive job losses in the community, w/a looming eviction crisis they can't afford to fix (partially bc the county lowered property taxes a few yrs ago to unsustainable levels)
- ppl need to work to pay bills, so we have to open
21/
- local leaders are also looking at massive job losses in the community, w/a looming eviction crisis they can't afford to fix (partially bc the county lowered property taxes a few yrs ago to unsustainable levels)
- ppl need to work to pay bills, so we have to open
21/
but there is no 'back to business' w/o 'back to school'
- we didn't prioritize schools, so now it's not safe to open
- this is where we must draw a line in the sand
- we must keep students, families, & staff safe
- congress will be forced to act if pressured by schools
22/
- we didn't prioritize schools, so now it's not safe to open
- this is where we must draw a line in the sand
- we must keep students, families, & staff safe
- congress will be forced to act if pressured by schools
22/
join us!
- contact @SCSSuptRay & the @SCSK12Unified board to demand safe schools
- use my public comment from mon's board mtg
- and show up on tuesday to demand #14DaysNoNewCases before reopening schools
- we've got the numbers!
23/
- contact @SCSSuptRay & the @SCSK12Unified board to demand safe schools
- use my public comment from mon's board mtg
- and show up on tuesday to demand #14DaysNoNewCases before reopening schools
- we've got the numbers!
23/
for all y'all saying, 'but kids don't get covid'
- think again
- check out the news from fl
- two 11 yr-olds just died (my kids are 10 and 11)
- the previous youngest was 16 (i work at a high school)
- and 31% of kids tested in fl are pos
- school is not safe
24/
- think again
- check out the news from fl
- two 11 yr-olds just died (my kids are 10 and 11)
- the previous youngest was 16 (i work at a high school)
- and 31% of kids tested in fl are pos
- school is not safe
24/
i'll end with this data from @GeorgiaTech + @appliedbinf
- if 100 ppl in shelby county gather, there's a 99% chance someone has covid
- w/50 ppl, it's 92%
- at 25, it's still 72%
- at 10, it's still 39%
- now think abt schools & restaurants
- return to phase1 or shut down!
25/
- if 100 ppl in shelby county gather, there's a 99% chance someone has covid
- w/50 ppl, it's 92%
- at 25, it's still 72%
- at 10, it's still 39%
- now think abt schools & restaurants
- return to phase1 or shut down!
25/
check out this interview i did last wk with @TobySells from @MemphisFlyer
memphisflyer.com/memphis/data-d…
27/
memphisflyer.com/memphis/data-d…
27/
if you appreciate my work, please donate something to @LifeLineSuccess. i will personally vouch for @ministerdbrown & @mrsvjbrown. i've partnered with them for over 10 yrs now.
they need new mowers & are 1/4 the way there.
every bit counts.
charity.gofundme.com/o/en/campaign/…
28/28
they need new mowers & are 1/4 the way there.
every bit counts.
charity.gofundme.com/o/en/campaign/…
28/28
