How many points are #swfc likely to be deducted then?
A Championship club director and one club executive wants 12 and 21 points deducted from #swfc as per @TheAthleticUK (theathletic.com/1930889/2020/0…).
(Long) thread below.
tl;dr: 8 (@OwlsAlive-esque!) and we'd survive by 2 points.
A Championship club director and one club executive wants 12 and 21 points deducted from #swfc as per @TheAthleticUK (theathletic.com/1930889/2020/0…).
(Long) thread below.
tl;dr: 8 (@OwlsAlive-esque!) and we'd survive by 2 points.
The independent Disciplinary Commission have concluded hearings and is expected to rule on Wednesday's case before the end of the season.
There's still reasonable hope we won't be deducted anything and fingers remain crossed that's the outcome. So, below, it's all hypothetical:
There's still reasonable hope we won't be deducted anything and fingers remain crossed that's the outcome. So, below, it's all hypothetical:
The Disciplinary Commission will, most likely, rule on two things:
1) Can the sale of Hillsborough be included in the 2017-18 accounts?
2) Does the sale figure of £60m represent "fair market value" for Hillsborough or should it be revised downwards?
1) Can the sale of Hillsborough be included in the 2017-18 accounts?
2) Does the sale figure of £60m represent "fair market value" for Hillsborough or should it be revised downwards?
The inclusion of the proceeds from the sale of Hillsborough in the 2017-18 accounts changes the P&S loss for 2015-2018 from £56m to £18m. The limit is £39m.
If the sale is not included the £56m loss would mean a minimum of 12 points deducted (and up to 9 more for aggravation).
If the sale is not included the £56m loss would mean a minimum of 12 points deducted (and up to 9 more for aggravation).
If the sale of Hillsborough IS allowed to be included in full in the 2017-18 accounts for P&S purposes then there will be no automatic deduction (but a potential 9 points for aggravation):
If the Disciplinary Commission then decides "fair market value" for Hillsborough is less than the £60m posted in the 2017-18 accounts then any sale price below £40m would incur a deduction for 2015-2018 and any below £56m a deduction for 2016-2019:
What would Hillsborough's sale be revalued at? The EFL's reported revisions of the sale prices of Aston Villa's and Derby's stadia can offer a guideline:
Using Derby's revisions 2015-2018 would see a minimum automatic deduction of 4 and 2016-2019 of 12.
Using Villa's there's no minimum automatic deduction for 2015-2018, but a 7 point one for 2016-2019.
The Disciplinary Commission can then add up to 9 points for aggravation.
Using Villa's there's no minimum automatic deduction for 2015-2018, but a 7 point one for 2016-2019.
The Disciplinary Commission can then add up to 9 points for aggravation.
Birmingham's case last year is the only guideline to what we might end up with IF the Disciplinary Commission finds us guilty.
The deduction added on top of the automatic one for breaking the loss limit is laid out in section 34-37 in the verdict on B'ham
The deduction added on top of the automatic one for breaking the loss limit is laid out in section 34-37 in the verdict on B'ham
Birmingham had their deduction reduced by 1 point for "very promptly admitting their breach" and "substantially complied" with conditions set by the EFL. We've not admitted our breach "very promptly", but our claim will be we had "reasonable expectation" there was no breach.
Birmingham then had a 3 points deducted for "aggravation", with the Disciplinary Commission citing "the conduct which gave rise to the breach, in particular the spending on new managers and players in 2017, demonstrates a deliberate disregard of the rules".
Finally no mitigating/aggravations found over Birmingham's signing of Kristian Pedersen. But the mention of guidelines provided, and EFL consultations, will surely have been followed very strictly by #swfc considering the several "soft" transfer embargos placed on the club.
Unless the Disciplinary Commission finds no scope at all for #swfc having had "reasonable expectation" the proceeds of the stadium sale could be included in the 2017-18 accounts for P&S purposes, I'd expect any further deductions for aggravation to be limited.
It would, however, be likely the sale price value of Hillsborough is revised downwards considering the reported downward revisions of Villa Park and Pride Park.
I've previously attempted to estimate how much Hillsborough would be valued if that happened and arrived at £48m:
I've previously attempted to estimate how much Hillsborough would be valued if that happened and arrived at £48m:
What would a sale price of £48m in the 2017-18 accounts for P&S purposes mean in terms of minimum automatic deductions then?
6 points for 2016-2019 to be applied, I'd expect to the 2019-20 season.
6 points for 2016-2019 to be applied, I'd expect to the 2019-20 season.
If #swfc are found to have shown "bad faith" in not getting a concrete confirmation a sale of the stadium could be included in the 2017-18 accounts, relying solely on "reasonable expectation", that would likely entail at least 3 points deducted for aggravation, though.
I'd also expect us to have that reduced, though, due to the mitigating factor of #swfc having worked under an EFL business plan for several seasons and having complied with several "soft" transfer embargos, perhaps to the tune of 1 point.
So a total of 2 points added on top of the automatic 6 points giving a total of 8 points deducted.
How would that change the league table?
We'd move to just three points above relegation:
How would that change the league table?
We'd move to just three points above relegation:
Two "relegation 6 pointers" at the weekend with Wigan hosting Charlton and Luton going to Hull, while bottom club Barnsley have a tough run of fixtures against promotion chasers:
Simulating the rest of the season with @FiveThirtyEight's match probabilities (based on team's form, underlying form, match importance and venue of matches) Wednesday finish on 50 points after the 8 point deduction and Wigan and Charlton survive on goal difference with 48 points!
I've put together a timeline of events and reports relating to our EFL case here (including links):
(Twitter is prohibiting me from posting the link to the Google Doc with the links (!), so DM me if you're interested)
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(Twitter had deleted the last lot of tweets in the thread - I'll (attempt!) to add the next one. @Twitter, why are you deleting tweets without notifying me?!)
Birmingham then had a 3 points deducted for "aggravation", with the Disciplinary Commission citing "the conduct which gave rise to the breach, in particular the spending on new managers and players in 2017, demonstrates a deliberate disregard of the rules".
Finally no mitigating/aggravations found over Birmingham's signing of Kristian Pedersen. But the mention of guidelines provided, and EFL consultations, will surely have been followed very strictly by #swfc considering the several "soft" transfer embargos placed on the club.
Unless the Disciplinary Commission finds no scope at all for #swfc having had "reasonable expectation" the proceeds of the stadium sale could be included in the 2017-18 accounts for P&S purposes, I'd expect any further deductions for aggravation to be limited.
It would, however, be likely the sale price value of Hillsborough is revised downwards considering the reported downward revisions of Villa Park and Pride Park.
I've previously attempted to estimate how much Hillsborough would be valued if that happened and arrived at £48m:
I've previously attempted to estimate how much Hillsborough would be valued if that happened and arrived at £48m:
What would a sale price of £48m in the 2017-18 accounts for P&S purposes mean in terms of minimum automatic deductions then?
6 points for 2016-2019 to be applied, I'd expect to the 2019-20 season.
6 points for 2016-2019 to be applied, I'd expect to the 2019-20 season.
If #swfc are found to have shown "bad faith" in not getting a concrete confirmation a sale of the stadium could be included in the 2017-18 accounts, relying solely on "reasonable expectation", that would likely entail at least 3 points deducted for aggravation, though.
I'd also expect us to have that reduced, though, due to the mitigating factor of #swfc having worked under an EFL business plan for several seasons and having complied with several "soft" transfer embargos, perhaps to the tune of 1 point.
So a total of 2 points added on top of the automatic 6 points giving a total of 8 points deducted.
How would that change the league table?
We'd move to just three points above relegation:
How would that change the league table?
We'd move to just three points above relegation:
Two "relegation 6 pointers" at the weekend with Wigan hosting Charlton and Luton going to Hull, while bottom club Barnsley have a tough run of fixtures against promotion chasers:
Simulating the rest of the season with @FiveThirtyEight's match probabilities (based on team's form, underlying form, match importance and venue of matches) Wednesday finish on 50 points after the 8 point deduction and Wigan and Charlton survive on goal difference with 48 points!
I've put together a timeline of events and reports relating to our EFL case here (including links):
(Twitter is prohibiting me from posting the link to the Google Doc with the links (!, @Twitter, please explain yourselves!), so DM me if you're interested)
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