Emissions from aviation account for about 2% of global emissions. That may not seem substantial now, but aviation is one of the fastest growing emitting sectors and is often excluded from national climate commitments. ✈️
Recognizing this, countries agreed via the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) to offset any growth in emissions from international flights. This means that airlines would pay for things like renewable energy projects.
One critical detail of CORSIA is the baseline against which emissions must be offset. Up until now, airlines were to average emissions across 2019 and 2020 to come up with that baseline, and emissions that were above that average would require offsets.
In the wake of #COVID19, the airline industry lobbied ICAO to only include 2019 emissions in the baseline, claiming that the drop in travel in 2020 would impact the baseline unfairly. ICAO agreed. (even without this change CORSIA had very flexible criteria) 
This is a big deal because changing the baseline may delay airlines’ purchase of offsets for 3-5 years, according to @EnvDefenseFund analysis ow.ly/CnXo50Ay1bm
The impact could be even longer lasting, as it remains to be seen how long before airline travel rebounds.
The impact could be even longer lasting, as it remains to be seen how long before airline travel rebounds.
That is, if air travel ever does bounce back to 2019 levels. Last week @United signaled that it will likely layoff 1/3 of its employees ow.ly/rHl150Ay1pD. Other airlines may follow, shrinking the entire industry. Using 2019 gives airlines a free pass on reducing emissions.
Ultimately, ICAO’s decision may make it impossible for its offsetting program to achieve its own objectives: help reduce emissions faster than they would have otherwise. Airlines can now claim to be climate leaders (complying with CORSIA) without extra effort on their part.
