Feel like we’ll be hearing a lot abt crime in NYC in the weeks ahead, so:
1. Don’t forget: NYPD makes its data public, and quickly. You can verify claims yourself here: www1.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stat…
2. Be wary of cherry-picking. Some things rise, others fall. The Narrative adapts.
1. Don’t forget: NYPD makes its data public, and quickly. You can verify claims yourself here: www1.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stat…
2. Be wary of cherry-picking. Some things rise, others fall. The Narrative adapts.
Right now, shootings are up, but rape, assault and robbery are down. So we hear a lot abt shootings. Flip that, and we’d have discussions of robberies.
3. Only the upticks seem to trigger discussions of reforms. I’ve seen nothing asking if, say, reforms cut assaults. Note that.
3. Only the upticks seem to trigger discussions of reforms. I’ve seen nothing asking if, say, reforms cut assaults. Note that.
4. NYC isn’t the only place w reforms, and it isn’t the only place w protests. Be wary of cherry-picking cities, too.
5. Related, crime in cities won’t always move the same way. If someone discusses “rises of X in cities A, B, and C,” need to also know if X fell in D, E.
5. Related, crime in cities won’t always move the same way. If someone discusses “rises of X in cities A, B, and C,” need to also know if X fell in D, E.
This last point is esp relevant now, when crime is fairly stable (as opposed to broad declines of 1990s). A lot of jumps will be noise, and I’ve seen little work trying to give sense of what pure noise looks like—a good baseline for asking if we’re seeing something “real.”
6. Now, ofc, flip side of this is also true. Be wary of claims like “city B passed reform X and crime stayed flat, so X is safe.”
Maybe. But did city C adopt X too and see a spike? What rose and fell post-X? Etc etc.
Media coverage, tho, is far less likely to make this error.
Maybe. But did city C adopt X too and see a spike? What rose and fell post-X? Etc etc.
Media coverage, tho, is far less likely to make this error.
