1/4
Like I said yesterday: it's a cliff-hanger. Let's see what @soniasodha has got for us on Monday.
My recollection: the UK's modeling at the time was catastrophically wrong - "UK 4 weeks behind Italy, and 5-6 days doubling time."
That's on the record (and it was wrong).
Like I said yesterday: it's a cliff-hanger. Let's see what @soniasodha has got for us on Monday.
My recollection: the UK's modeling at the time was catastrophically wrong - "UK 4 weeks behind Italy, and 5-6 days doubling time."
That's on the record (and it was wrong).
2/4
These numbers seemed to come out of @neil_ferguson's model. Then some model assumption was changed, and estimated deaths became more realistic (500,000). No one knew why because the model code was unpublished. It seemed like robustness hadn't been checked.
These numbers seemed to come out of @neil_ferguson's model. Then some model assumption was changed, and estimated deaths became more realistic (500,000). No one knew why because the model code was unpublished. It seemed like robustness hadn't been checked.
3/4
I remember someone claimed the change was due to previously underestimating hospitalizations by a factor 2. I found that strange because the pandemic was growing by a factor 2 every 2.5 days. So healthcare system collapse would just move back or forth by ~2.5 days.
I remember someone claimed the change was due to previously underestimating hospitalizations by a factor 2. I found that strange because the pandemic was growing by a factor 2 every 2.5 days. So healthcare system collapse would just move back or forth by ~2.5 days.
4/4
Why is 500,000 deaths realistic? You don't need a model for that: Covid-19 is said to kill about 1% of those who catch it. Maybe 2%. If the whole UK population is infected, 1-2% die, or 500,000-1,000,000, order of magnitude. Not everyone will get it, so ~500,000 seems ~right.
Why is 500,000 deaths realistic? You don't need a model for that: Covid-19 is said to kill about 1% of those who catch it. Maybe 2%. If the whole UK population is infected, 1-2% die, or 500,000-1,000,000, order of magnitude. Not everyone will get it, so ~500,000 seems ~right.
