40 new deaths due to Covid-19 today. About a hundred under trend. Tragic and avoidable had we locked down earlier and properly. As to which way this trend is going now? All bets are off. Here's the overall graph (1) 
We had two days that were under trend, one day well over trend, then the government announced that we wouldn't get daily updates because the data is dodgy. But they didn't turn the tap off on their official dashboard and the data arrived anyway. But its a hundred under trend (2)
This is by far, by a long way, the most extreme statistical outlier of a day we've seen. I could do the confidence level analysis again I suppose, I've done it for other days, but thats not necessary. This is WAY off where we'd expect the number t be. Here's a closer look (3)
Now this could be the first day of returning back to where we were, back to the old trajectory (just in time for the impact of pubs opening to hit us next weekend!), it could be a reporting issue, it could be all sorts of things. This doesn't mean cover up. (4)
If we use data trends to determine what was happening with R when todays poor folk who died caught the disease, yesterday was trending us sharply upwards, today sharply downwards. I dunno. Your guess is as good as mine (5)
Maybe I'm over thinking this. In a way it was -last- Saturday that was over-trend. But thats only part of the story here. (6)
The trend this week has been pretty solidly static, and todays figure alone takes drags projections based on whats been happening over the last 7 and 14 days right bang on to overlap the projection based on the decline since peak (7)
Call me weird. Tell me I'm a deranged conspiracy theorist if you like. But yesterday the data showed these three lines diverging markedly. And the day the government says it isn't releasing data but does by the backdoor that fixes the recent more worrying trend? Suspicious? (8)
Wait and see is all I can really say. Either a weird statistical outlier or something very peculiar is going on. The seven day rolling total divided by the previous days is jerking up and down right now, that makes coherent analysis difficult (9)
I'll continue looking at the data on Sunday and Monday, but they're typically low days. Perhaps we'll see data seeping out correcting todays anomalous low figure. Perhaps not. Time will tell. (fin)
