The #Arctic ocean is divided large regions as indicated on the map on the right. Zack combines sea ice data from three of these regions; region 3, 4 and 5,which are the East Siberian, the Laptev and Kara Sea respectively. The result is the chart on the right. 2/7 
The individual charts look like this: 3/7
The ice in the Siberian side of the Arctic now is mainly new or “first year” ice formed last winter and thus susceptible to melting out in the summer as shown below. Additionally it has been a very warm summer on the Siberian side of the Arctic. A perfect storm for melting. 4/7
Combined, based on historic data, the 3 regions have never been 100% ice free by the September low - with the lowest point coming in 2012 at a good bit over 100K sq. km. The question I posed to Zack was: Could this be the year for zero, or BOE for THAT part of the Arctic? 5/7
Additionally I’d toss in a 4th region - the Barents Sea, region 6 below, for a clean sweep of that entire side of the Arctic. I’m suggesting we have better than even odds for zero ice in those four combined regions by the September low. An historic and significant event. 6/7
Of course wind and weather are always the big factors in the #Arctic. Sea ice drifts a lot and moves from region to region as it melts in the summer. It is quite possible for ice to move into any of these regions and stay there before the winter freeze up begins. 7/7
