Thread by @ScottCorb

Thread on FAO Autism Report

1. $608M wasn't actually spent on services in FY19/20. $174M is tagged as carry forward to this FY for childhood budgets (that's if the OAG okays it). Also, $97M in CBs received does not = spent on services last FY.

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https://twitter.com/InfoFAO/status/1285560224699604993

2. If the OAG okays the carry-forward budget expense, will the government spend $774M this year ($600M budget plus the $174M carry-forward)? I'll believe when I see it.

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3. The $174M unspent last FY is trending higher than the $192M underspend I estimated over the two FYs before the new program is up in 2021. The govt could've reinstated the OAP as the interim plan, put kids in service and stabilize service capacity
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4. FAO report highlights the dilemma facing the implementation working group to deliver a sustainable needs-based program. A status quo budget won't do when considering inflation and population growth. In the last year 6,409 kids registered.

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5. Report doesn't say what the "Other" $67M was spent on.

It's $27M less than the $94M spent on the FY18/19 "Other" non-therapy costs such as Admin, Family Supports, Diagnostic Services, School Supports, and Respite, others.

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6. Will the govt grow the autism budget based on increased demand? If not, waitlists will grow, or the Care Coordinators will be coordinating you out of the OAP like the old AIP program. Churn decided by someone other than your psychologist

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7. The number of legacy children by the end of March 2020 was at 6,400. We don't know what the July 2020 numbers are, but it's likely the legacy kids are down 50% despite @ToddSmithPC saying there would be no disruption in service.
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8. The average childhood budget of $8,100 shows what a raw deal the MacLeod plan was in comparison to the average $29,900 in services under the needs-based ABA program. Yes, waiting for years on end was also a raw deal, but at least there was hope.
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9. It would cost $1.35 billion to have a needs-based service that will "Clear the waitlist". Clearing isn't necessary, we just need reasonable wait times. What would that cost? $900 million, a billion? Where will the difference be made up?
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10. The FAO report estimates that a cumulative total of 1,600 kids will be added to the OAP by 2025–26, yet there were 6,409 kids registered last year. How many were newly diagnosed vs older kids that were not registered before?
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More details in my article 10 thoughts on the FAO's financial review of autism services and program design considerations for the new Ontario Autism Program

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link.medium.com/vrAIFsovj8