Thread by @FMwenge

CDC made a presentation on the outlook of the COVID-19 in Zambia. The presentation shows that things will get worse before they can improve.

The GOOD NEWS is that CDC offers feasible options to save lives in Zambia.

Here is a summary

A Thread! Please Read!

True that so far, total confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Africa exceed China, and Zambia may be approaching China levels if control measures are not put in place. Positivity (number of +ve people per given tests) is also rising indicating high transmission

The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases do not tell the whole story. It is likely that for each person found positive after a test, there are more cases in the community. This has been the case in Europe and USA. Relying on confirmed cases therefore doesn't give a full picture

But what could be accounting for low cases in Zambia?(remember, relatively Zambia still has low cases)

One reason is population age distribution: the population above 65, who are the worst hit represent only 2.3% of Zambia's population compared to 16% and 23% in US & Italy

Second reason for seeming low deaths is that not all COVID deaths are recorded
• Nearly 40% of deaths in Zambia are not
registered at health facilities (Source: CDC, 2020)
• Not all deaths with suspected COVID are
tested (Source: CDC, 2020)

But despite a younger population, many Zambians are
still at significant risk of death from COVID-19 as more than 3 million (17%) Zambians have underlying condition that put them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 (Source: CDC, 2020)

Here is an example of distribution of the over 4,000 COVID-19 deaths in South Africa and what Zambia is learning from them:

For every 100 COVID-19 deaths in SA

*52 had diabetes
*19 had high BP
*12 had HIV
*9 had kidney failure
*6 had TB

There was some underlying issue

But wait, how is COVID mainly spread?

*Through close person-to-person contact
*Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs,sneezes, signs, etc.
*By touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching the mouth, nose, or eyes

Based on how COVID-19 is spread, mandated public masking decreases its spread. In the U.S., mandating facemasks was associated with subsequent declines in
daily county-level COVID-19 growth rates.

*This means making not wearing masks illegal

For me, this is the only way out

What should be done now?

We need clear and consistent public messaging about the risk of COVID-19 so each Zambian can play their part in protecting themselves and their loved ones. I'm sure the authorities took notes.

We have to emphasize the things that each Zambian can do to minimize the impact of COVID- 19, things like physical distancing, mask wearing, frequent hand washing, and staying home when sick.

Need to enforce mandated mask wearing in public
Need to work with community/church leaders, youth, etc. to get public buy-in for these measures
We have to protect people at highest risk of COVID-19 death: those 60 years and older; those with diabetes, high BP, heart disease etc.

We must coordinate closely with public health officials to find the safest ways to keep the economy and other critical sectors open.

Based on CDC Presentation

CDC also says, weather is not a strong explanatory variable of COVID-19 cases. Simply because some parts of the World such as Brazil and parts of the USA which are warmer than Zambia now are still recording cases. This suggests simply entering August won't lead to drop in cases

The issue of herd immunity has also been dispelled on account that re-infections are possible. Therefore, the time spent waiting for more people to be infected will result in more re-infections and won't take away the cases.

Ba Zambia, I think apa nomba ni One Zambia One Nation in wearing a mask every day. Masks are saving lives because they are effectively preventing spread. This has been tested empirically in the USA and other places. Get a mask on top of social distancing.

Then there is the issue of a lock-down. CDC says we cannot perpetually lock down economies even at global level. Since we know how COVID-19 spreads, let's prevent it as we go about the affairs of the economy.

Given the above, I think there is reason for all of us to remain calm. It's the only way out because if we panic, more mistakes will be made. If we panic we will worsen the situation of colleagues with underlying situations who are the most at risk.

#StaySafeStayHome #CalmDown