1) All eyes are Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in the talks for another coronavirus bill. McConnell says he will release a bill in the coming days. The Leader said weeks ago that he would write the bill and not cede to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
2) But there is deep dissent on the GOP side of the aisle. And that’s why Democrats are willing to sit back and wait for Republicans the and Trump Administration to develop their own proposal.
3) Pelosi wrote and passed a $3 trillion bill in May. McConnell and other GOPers repeatedly criticize that measure. Pelosi barely broke a sweat moving that bill through her chamber. Democrats feel they don’t have to do anything until Republicans get their act together.
4) Republicans are only united in what they oppose. Not in what they are for.
5) Here's the grand irony: McConnell wanted to seize the bill writing process for this phase of coronavirus spending. Many Republicans felt Pelosi asserted too much control in the last phases of coronavirus relief. McConnell wanted to write the bill to get more GOP buy-in.
6) Central to the talks are White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. Meadows signature move when he served in the House was detonating things. Now, Meadows needs to bring the sides together.
7) An arch-conservative, Meadows was always leery of major spending bills. Now, if there is to be a bill, Meadows needs to run up the price tag.
8) I asked Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin yesterday at the Capitol if cost was a major factor inhibiting passage of a bill.
“We’re going to spend what we need to spend,” replied Mnuchin.
“We’re going to spend what we need to spend,” replied Mnuchin.
9) There’s a reason why McConnell didn’t mention a coronavirus bill in his opening remarks today on the Senate floor and instead spoke about “cancel culture.” GOPers are struggling to assemble a measure.
10) Democrats are on the sidelines now. And that’s exactly where they’d like to be. For all of the railing GOPers did about the House bill in May, Republicans will eventually have to shift toward the Democrats position.
11) As we always say on Capitol Hill, “It’s about the math. It’s about the math. It’s about the math.” And so far, the “math” doesn’t work in favor of the GOP. Republicans can only lose four members on their side in the Senate and pass a bill without needing Democratic assistance
12) And, the GOP needs at least seven Democrats to cut off a filibuster – if all GOPers stick together. Even that wouldn’t happen under these circumstances. That’s why any bill probably has an amalgamation of senators from both sides
13) Republicans are worried about extra spending. Fox is also told there is concern that the sides need to make sure the bill doesn’t tilt too far to the left that it infuriates the President and prompts a veto threat.
14) “They want to make sure they have something he can sign,” said one source.
15) By the same token, Republican senators facing competitive re-election bids this fall are starting to get nervous about not doing a bill. They fear there could be electoral consequences if they are seen as ineffective in providing additional coronavirus aid.
16) “This bill only gets bigger the longer this goes on,” said a GOP source close to the talks. “You add more things. You don’t take away things.”
17) This is why it’s going to be very hard to wrap this bill up by the end of next week. And what happens next week? The extra unemployment insurance which Congress approved earlier in the year expires.
18) After the better than-expected jobs report for June, some GOP senators expressed skepticism about re-upping the unemployment benefits and certainly not tacking on another round of direct payments.
19) But even Meadows conceded yesterday that the end of the month created a deadline for the talks because of the unemployment insurance conundrum.
20) That’s prompted some Senate Republicans to float the idea of a short-term extension of unemployment insurance into August to serve as a bridge. That would prevent a lapse in that aid.
21) Republicans are now very concerned about getting a bad jobs report for July – especially if negotiations slip into August without a bill in place. Rough jobs numbers would definitely jolt the discussions and probably prompt delivery a bill at Warp Factor 9.99.
22) And all of this is cast against the backdrop of Republicans starting to get very jumpy about the polls and their own political skin as the pandemic deepens. GOPers don’t want to be seen as ignoring the crisis or appearing asleep at the switch.
