Obviously, any poll showing the Democrat up in Texas is a pretty good result for the Democrat, but if Quinnipiac has Biden up 1 in Texas when he's up 8-9 nationally (and more than that in Q-Pac's last national poll), it's nowhere near the tipping point.
poll.qu.edu/texas/release-…
poll.qu.edu/texas/release-…
One thing that I think people miss is that the partisan lean of a state is slightly mean reverting.
Say a state was an R+20 state eight years ago, and an R+10 state four years ago. You might expect it to be a swing state now, right? No. On average it'll be like an R+13.
Say a state was an R+20 state eight years ago, and an R+10 state four years ago. You might expect it to be a swing state now, right? No. On average it'll be like an R+13.
And I'd argue that you're seeing this in the data this year. Biden is doing "surprisingly" well in the Midwestern states like OH, MI and WI that drifted Republican from 2012 to 2016. But his numbers have been pretty tepid in AZ, GA, TX, states where Dems were gaining ground.
Yes, Biden is sometimes leading in polls of those states (especially Arizona). But he's way ahead nationally so that's not a huge surprise. Right now our averages have him +2.0 in Ohio but +2.3 in Arizona, so pretty similar. All of this is consistent with mean-reversion.
Another implication of mean-reversion is that Trump's Electoral College edge could be smaller this year, since state leans could look like some hybrid of 2016 and 2012 (when Obama performed strongly in tipping-point states). And I'd argue that you see that in the data, too.
