Memphis/Shelby County, Mid-Wk Covid Update
tl;dr
- cases/day are down this wk
- but lest anyone celebrate, testing is down more
- and that's masking the true number of cases
- so positivity rate is above 15%
- w/o testing, lockdown is the only option
- remember march?
1/
tl;dr
- cases/day are down this wk
- but lest anyone celebrate, testing is down more
- and that's masking the true number of cases
- so positivity rate is above 15%
- w/o testing, lockdown is the only option
- remember march?
1/
14-Day Growth Rate, Cases vs Tests
- as you can see, the blue is above the red
- that means cases are growing faster than testing
- in fact, cases are growing 70% faster
- this tells us the virus is out of control
2/
- as you can see, the blue is above the red
- that means cases are growing faster than testing
- in fact, cases are growing 70% faster
- this tells us the virus is out of control
2/
Avg Covid Cases/Day Per Wk
- as you can see, we're down this wk
- but we know this data are not accurate bc testing is a problem
- we're -13% from last wk, +9% over wk before, = wk before that
- we're +61% over 4wks ago
- now compare these numbers to testing...
3/
- as you can see, we're down this wk
- but we know this data are not accurate bc testing is a problem
- we're -13% from last wk, +9% over wk before, = wk before that
- we're +61% over 4wks ago
- now compare these numbers to testing...
3/
Avg Covid Tests/Day Per Wk
- as you can see, this is the lowest daily testing in a month
- and this is a huge problem
- testing is -14% from last wk (-13% cases)
- 2wks ago, -2% tests (+9% cases)
- 3wks ago, -19% tests (+/- 0% cases)
- 4wks ago, +7% tests (+61% cases)
4/
- as you can see, this is the lowest daily testing in a month
- and this is a huge problem
- testing is -14% from last wk (-13% cases)
- 2wks ago, -2% tests (+9% cases)
- 3wks ago, -19% tests (+/- 0% cases)
- 4wks ago, +7% tests (+61% cases)
4/
Covid Positivity Rate
- as you can see, we've plateaued so far this wk at 15.1%, even with last wk's record high %pos
- this means we're missing a significant number of cases...which, obviously, since testing is so limited you can't even get a test w/o symptoms
5/
- as you can see, we've plateaued so far this wk at 15.1%, even with last wk's record high %pos
- this means we're missing a significant number of cases...which, obviously, since testing is so limited you can't even get a test w/o symptoms
5/
Covid Positivity Rate
- there's nothing really to say here
- %pos has just been rising and rising and rising
6/
- there's nothing really to say here
- %pos has just been rising and rising and rising
6/
Daily Cases Per 100k
- even though cases are down this wk, we are still in the RED according to the @HarvardGH metrics
- and we've been in the RED for nearly a month now
- for context, RED = stay-at-home orders are necessary
- that's not me, that's harvard!
7/
- even though cases are down this wk, we are still in the RED according to the @HarvardGH metrics
- and we've been in the RED for nearly a month now
- for context, RED = stay-at-home orders are necessary
- that's not me, that's harvard!
7/
Current Testing vs Testing Needed
- the other metric is to get positivity down below 3%
- w/current levels of daily cases, we'd need to do over 10k tests each day
- for context, we're barely doing 2k/day
- in other words, we need more than 5x current testing
8/
- the other metric is to get positivity down below 3%
- w/current levels of daily cases, we'd need to do over 10k tests each day
- for context, we're barely doing 2k/day
- in other words, we need more than 5x current testing
8/
Covid Task Force
- i watched yesterday's briefing...and am very concerned
--> dr haushalter said it was "a positive sign" that cases were not increasing...which is just misleading.
- testing is so limited that we know for a fact that ppl w/covid are not getting tested
9/
- i watched yesterday's briefing...and am very concerned
--> dr haushalter said it was "a positive sign" that cases were not increasing...which is just misleading.
- testing is so limited that we know for a fact that ppl w/covid are not getting tested
9/
Covid Task Force
--> jenny bartlett-prescott, the coo of church health, spoke abt testing & said you are "unlikely to be able to access a test at this point" if you don't have symptoms or "a close contact of a known positive"
- so of course cases aren't growing!
10/
--> jenny bartlett-prescott, the coo of church health, spoke abt testing & said you are "unlikely to be able to access a test at this point" if you don't have symptoms or "a close contact of a known positive"
- so of course cases aren't growing!
10/
Covid Task Force
--> we are following cdc guidelines for when testing is limited, which means Priority 1 is ppl w/symptoms & ppl w/o symptoms don't get tested, which is backwards.
- tell ppl w/symptoms to assume pos & isolate
- test ppl w/o symptoms to stop the spread
11/
--> we are following cdc guidelines for when testing is limited, which means Priority 1 is ppl w/symptoms & ppl w/o symptoms don't get tested, which is backwards.
- tell ppl w/symptoms to assume pos & isolate
- test ppl w/o symptoms to stop the spread
11/
Covid Task Force
--> dr haushalter, speaking to the positivity rate, says "we need to be alarmed" by 15%, but once again says "we ideally want that at 10% or below." Again, this is just wrong.
- we *have* to get below 5%
- we *need* to get below 3% for true containment
12/
--> dr haushalter, speaking to the positivity rate, says "we need to be alarmed" by 15%, but once again says "we ideally want that at 10% or below." Again, this is just wrong.
- we *have* to get below 5%
- we *need* to get below 3% for true containment
12/
Covid Task Force
--> also, dr. haushalter was asked about the tripwires we've been hearing about for 3wks now. why is this taking so damn long?
- they were shared last wk w/mayors
- they were mtg yesterday to discuss
- expected to announce next wk
- just no urgency
13/
--> also, dr. haushalter was asked about the tripwires we've been hearing about for 3wks now. why is this taking so damn long?
- they were shared last wk w/mayors
- they were mtg yesterday to discuss
- expected to announce next wk
- just no urgency
13/
Covid Task Force
--> dr haushalter added that they can act w/o tripwires in place if there's a need...which only begs the question of what the hell they're waiting on!
- when you can't test, you have lost control
- when you lose control, you must act
14/
--> dr haushalter added that they can act w/o tripwires in place if there's a need...which only begs the question of what the hell they're waiting on!
- when you can't test, you have lost control
- when you lose control, you must act
14/
Covid Task Force
--> i appreciate bartlett-prescott's honesty about testing capacity.
- that was a breath of fresh air
- and, note, it's not a local problem
- as she noted, there's a natl shortage of supplies and reagents
15/
--> i appreciate bartlett-prescott's honesty about testing capacity.
- that was a breath of fresh air
- and, note, it's not a local problem
- as she noted, there's a natl shortage of supplies and reagents
15/
Covid Task Force
--> there are only two ways, short of a vaccine, to stop the spread of the virus.
- one is test + trace + isolate
- the other is lockdown
- tti is preferred
- but if you can't do tti, then you have to shut down
- why are we not having this conversation?
16/
--> there are only two ways, short of a vaccine, to stop the spread of the virus.
- one is test + trace + isolate
- the other is lockdown
- tti is preferred
- but if you can't do tti, then you have to shut down
- why are we not having this conversation?
16/
Covid Task Force
--> no one *wants* lockdown. but let's remember march.
- we locked down in march bc we didn't have testing
- and that meant we couldn't "see" the spread of the virus
- well, we don't have testing now!
- we can't "see" the spread now!
- what's different?
17/
--> no one *wants* lockdown. but let's remember march.
- we locked down in march bc we didn't have testing
- and that meant we couldn't "see" the spread of the virus
- well, we don't have testing now!
- we can't "see" the spread now!
- what's different?
17/
i'll end here...
--> reminder, don't let them tell you cases are dropping.
- the number of pos tests has dropped
- but we know the data are not accurate
- we have massive testing shortages
- if you don't want lockdown, then fix testing, NOW
- soon, we won't have a choice
18/18
--> reminder, don't let them tell you cases are dropping.
- the number of pos tests has dropped
- but we know the data are not accurate
- we have massive testing shortages
- if you don't want lockdown, then fix testing, NOW
- soon, we won't have a choice
18/18
