Panic in No 10 about the union but surprising it’s taken them by surprise. Trying to retain Scotland, after a period where its lack of veto power on fundamental political questions (Ie Brexit/no deal) has been/is being revealed repeatedly, was always going to be very difficult.
This fact was predicted and put to them and advocates of Brexit (who often tend to be strong unionists) but few answers were/are forthcoming. The twin referendums (14/16) gave them false security. But the legitimacy of the 1st was always going to be undrtmined by Brexit...
... (as Scots weretold voting no would guarantee their place in the EU. The legitimacy of the second (a UK wide majoritarian vote) was again always more limited in Scotland by their remain vote. It epitomised the two now v different political cultures in England and Scotland.
That’s been developing for a long time but there’s been precious little big thinking in the Conservative Party in Westminster (and Westminster more widely) about what might be done (constitutionally or politically) to address these points. Hence we are where we are.
When the political wants, culture and mores of the nations of Great Britain (NI being an unusual case) were largely aligned the fact that England dominated in population and political power didn’t matter much. Now they don’t it really does. To keep union together in those circs..
... probably requires fundamental... constitutional rethink. But that’s something Westminster is very bad at and there doesn’t appear much sign of.
It also requires careful calibration of Scottish politics/public opinion at this v delicate stage in union history-that effort is unlikely to be much helped by a) a no trade deal Brexit at end of the year b) insistence on no second ref even if there’s overwhelming SNP maj in 2021
In the months and years to come, we can look forward to an inversion of the EU argument. Conservatives arguing that uncertainty would be a bad thing, that leaving your biggest trading partner on unknown terms being a disaster and the SNP arguing that solutions to all can be found
