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Jul 27, 2020 • 3 tweets • 3 min read
A great deal of the focus on #CovidCrisis #economic recovery, understandably, is centered on national-level data, but it’s also interesting to see how world #trade volumes have been affected.
In summary, world #trade volumes declined 1.1% in May, following on a 12.2% decline in April. Overall, #GlobalTrade has declined about 17% year-to-date as of May and resided at October 2010 levels. Image
Within this dynamic, however, we’re witnessing some significant month-on-month #dispersion, with #Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand displaying improved #trade volumes, while the U.S., Latin America and much of Asia and Africa languish. Image

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More from @RickRieder

Rick Rieder Profile picture
Aug 10
The headline #inflation data today moderated a bit on the back of falling #gasoline prices, but it’s still running at a worryingly high rate.
Over time, we think the slowdown in #economic growth, the continuation of the @federalreserve’s assertive #HikingCycle and the possibility of resolution with several persistent supply chain issues should influence broad #inflation lower.
Still, while #CorePCE inflation (the #Fed’s favored measure) is likely to moderate in the coming months, it’ll still remain well-above the Fed’s 2% #inflation target.
Read 15 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
Jun 16
The @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 0.75% yesterday, to between 1.50% and 1.75%, as was increasingly anticipated.
The move by the #Fed to progress faster to neutral will be applauded in the long run by the #economy, business decision-makers and ultimately by# markets.
Like putting your car’s transmission (automatic or manual) into #neutral, getting to that place allows for decision-making flexibility given changing road conditions, particularly when the road to the #destination has become increasingly #murky.
Read 13 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
Jun 10
Core #CPI (excluding those volatile #food and #energy components) came in at 0.6% month-over-month and rose 6.0% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, headline #CPI data printed at a very strong 1.0% month-over-month and came in at 8.6% year-over-year, spiking higher on #shelter, #gas and food costs.
These persistently outsized gains in #inflation are clearly having an impact on business and #ConsumerConfidence. Also, the #Fed’s favored measure of inflation, core #PCE, increased 0.34% in April, bringing the year-over-year figure for the measure to 4.9%, as of that month.
Read 14 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
May 4
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 50 basis points (bps), to between 0.75% and 1.0%, and announced the start of #runoff of the central bank’s balance sheet.
As previously suggested by the #Fed’s March minutes, the pace of runoff was confirmed today as $95 billion/month ($60 billion in U.S. #Treasuries and $35 billion in Agency #MBS, with a three-month phase-in period.
Also as expected, the statement reiterated that the #FOMC “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” underscoring the seriousness of #Fed policymakers in getting #inflation and inflation expectations under control.
Read 16 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
May 2
While there is still considerable uncertainty over the forecast for #inflation, we think both Core #CPI and #PCE inflation peaked in March and February, respectively, and should move appreciably lower by the end of 2022. Image
Throughout the pandemic, strong disposable #income and limited services spending fueled consumer #spending on goods and high goods volumes created #bottlenecks and extreme #inflation. Image
Eventually, excessively easy #MonetaryPolicy caused this robust #inflation to broaden into less disrupted categories.
Read 6 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
Mar 10
A few months ago, #markets expected U.S. #inflation to peak by mid-2022 at around 7% to 8% at the headline level and then anticipated that generalized #price gains would decline into year end, closing the year around 4%.
However, the tragic war now unfolding with Russia’s attack upon Ukraine has not only sent #energy prices skyrocketing but it has led to much greater uncertainty over #economic growth and #MonetaryPolicy reaction functions, in Europe and indeed around the world.
Core #CPI (excluding volatile #food and #energy components) came in at 0.5% month-over-month and 6.4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, headline CPI data printed at 0.8% month-over-month and came in at 7.9% year-over-year, the greatest increase over a 12-month period since January 1982.
Read 17 tweets

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