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Imagine you're Facebook, and you think you can get ~40% of the top 100 TikTok creators to switch to Instagram/Reels if you shell out enough cash.

How much are you willing to pay?

What % of the total do you offer to @charlidamelio?
Facebook has ~$60b in the bank now, and generated $12b in cash over the past 12 months.

TikTok represents a nascent user behavior, but the category is likely to support a pretty huge business over the long run, easily tens of billions of incremental ad revenue.
How big of an impact would adding ~40% of the top 100 TikTok users be?

I think it'd be a pretty massive event. They are the tentpoles. People will still use TikTok, but Reels/Instagram is no longer optional. The existing IG network will make it even more compelling.
Would this increase anti-trust risk? Probably not. The gov't sees TikTok dominance as a bigger threat than Facebook. (The devil you know, etc.)
All considered, if I were running Facebook I'd offer up to $500m to @charlidamelio to go exclusive on Reels/IG for five years, and roughly another $500m to the rest.
It sounds like a lot, but...

A) $1b is 1.6% of Facebook's current cash, and ~10% of the new cash they'll add to their bank in the next year

B) Keanu Reeves made a similar amount off the Matrix films

C) It's the only way to shift momentum towards Reels
I don't think it'll work for Facebook to simply copy the format, the way they did with Snapchat stories.

TikTok is about magnetic creator personalities more than it's about a format for sharing with friends.
So, how much is Facebook actually offering?

"hundreds of thousands" 😆
wsj.com/articles/faceb…
This is wildly low! Either they're not actually approaching "top" TikTok talent, or that talent has no clue what they're worth, or Facebook is overestimating the leverage their network gets them in this market.
Just out of curiosity, if you were Facebook, how much would you be willing to pay TikTok creators for 5 years of exclusivity?
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