Thread by @lateriser12

FPL Captaincy, a [THREAD] (part 1)

A few people have been asking me to do a thread on my thinking behind captaincy so here goes. There isn't an exact science or theory behind it because i'm very instinctive (and lucky) but i fancy a ramble because i already miss writing. Read on

I got a total of 573 captaincy points and this is my breakdown of hauls in points:

0-9 pts: 14 GWS (Random 5, City 5, Salah 3, Martial 1)
10-19 pts: 11 GWS (Random 4, City 4, Salah 3)
20+ pts: 13 GWS (Salah 4, City 6, Martial 3)

I have never captained KdB.

What i learnt from the tweet above is primarily i love captaining city players (highest scoring team in the league) despite the rotation risk associated with them because when it comes through, i even hit 30+ hauls quite often. Do i deserve that luck? I did get 5 dud hauls and..

4 middling hauls from Man City players so you do have to persist to hit those big hauls. One of the reasons i'm big on having the deadlines two hours early because i think its a part of strategy to indulge in Pep roulette despite the obvious risk so as to hit 20-40 point hauls..

..and managers like @fplrhinos who go there should definitely be rewarded. Getting team sheets and then captaining a Man City player is like playing FIFA at beginner's level so you can score 20 goals in every game. Moving on from Pep Roulette, read on..

This is the average player wise breakdown for my captains. I think being Man United fan and watching Martial closely has definitely benefited me in catching his hauls. I'll talk a little in detail about this later. While we might think that there was luck...

captaining Aguero and catching his 30-40 point hauls, i did have to persist through a lot of his blanks to catch those big ones. There was a clear strategy that i was following to indulge in Pep roulette despite nailed-on-ness risk because simply put, they are the most explosive.

Another lesson learnt is random captaincies away from the premiums have a very low strike rate so don't indulge in them if you want to play smart. But i also want to play for fun and make FPL less boring so i'll keep doing it when i fancy it. Plus i don't like having rules.

Also a lot of people might see Sterling averages different to me. The reason for that is i captained Sterling only once in the first half of the season and 4 times since project restart because form was at the opposite end of the spectrum. This is one of the reasons you can't..

..have rules for captaincy because form is also a thing and he wasn't on it at the beginning but was definitely on it since restart. I did mention a few times that he should come really fresh post restart and his fitness is top notch and that performance of his against....

Liverpool convinced me about the same. On a side note i had a very tough decision to make going Sterling over KdB after the Liverpool game but i went Sterling because he just looked so in rhythm and i think he's a momentum player. Now lets come to some generic thoughts of mine..

What do i look for in a captaincy? Its very subjective. I like to try reading what the game might be like and whether the team is in good attacking form and what the defensive form of the opposition is like. FYI, the guys at @FMLFPL are one of the best readers of the game imo.

You should definitely listen to their pods if you aren't already. Apart from that, a big question you should generally ask yourself is whether that team is creating enough chances and whether that team is capable of 3/4/5-0 an opposition. Why Man City and Liverpool were on top..

..of my captaincy thoughts. Its the same reason why Kane wasn't a part of my captaincy thinking for GW38 because i just didn't think Spurs created that many chances despite Kane hogging a majority of them. The second question i ask my self is does this player have brace or...

hat-trick potential. It's why i have captained Aguero, Salah and Sterling so many times. It's also probably why i haven't owned KdB so much or captained him ever but i definitely need to fix this in 2020/21. A big note to self is KdB is a huge captaincy option in big games..

..because Pep fields him as a #10 and KdB has to DMs behind him. That along with him being on pens is a huge tick for him being a cap for tough games where he doesn't sit as deep. Team potential/ player ability aside, one of the key things to also note is opposition defensive...

...form. There is a big difference in opposition defensive form and ability. Sometimes managers realize they are playing terribly in defence and they do tighten up. Villa's defensive form post re-start or Saints defensive form post December is a great example of that. To judge...

...this i always have a look at the SiB and BC conceded by teams in the last 4-6 gameweeks in the @FFScout members area. You obviously correlate this by judging the quality of the opposition as well. @DavidMunday815 talks about this at length in all of his captaincy articles..

..which he does week on week on @FFScout and i make sure i go through them as it always adds to me thinking for the week. The Vardy sell to Aguero (c) move i made for Villa is a prime example of this. Everyone was on Vardy (c) that Gameweek and i saw an opportunity...

..to go different because saints had tightened up in the last few Gameweeks and i also felt like they wouldn't have forgotten the 9-0 battering Lei gave them. In addition, City vs Villa was the clear and obvious 3/4/5-0 fixture there so the only real worry was the nailed...

on ness of the city attacker. I went with Aguero despite him not being nailed (i always scour through city forums to get an idea of what teams they will play but of course they're not always right. I still do it). If he did start and everyone did know that, 60% of the game..

..would be on Aguero (c) because he was the clear and obvious choice. But i had persisted with the strategy of gambling on the not nailed city attacker all season and so managed to catch most of the hauls that did come through (along with the duds on the way). This strategy..

obviously isn't for everyone but just giving you an insight into my thinking. City were always the team creating the highest number of chances so you always have a good chance. Similar to looking at the defensive form of the opposition, statistically i also check a couple of....

...things. Offensive form of the team i am captaining and whether they are creating a good amount of chances(Last 4-6 Gameweeks). Secondly i have a custom table in the @FFScout members area which looks like this. All the important stats are in there but i pay most attention to..

..Big Chances and SiB (same for judging defensive and offensive form of teams). Goes without saying that eye-test also plays a big role and general assumptions i form in my head. Twitter ain't allowing me to continue. There's a Part 2 (not as big).

FPL Captaincy [THREAD] Part 2 continues from here.

So we were talking about eye-test and general assumptions in my head. I'll just state a couple of examples because i don't want to make this too long. Why Martial when no one was doing it? The clearest memory of mine is..

..why i captained him since re-start in the game he got a hat-trick. I think being a United fan worked in my favor. What was my thinking. I noticed that Tony always plays well around good players. He developed a good relationship with Rashford when both of them were playing mid..

..sesaon. He also immediately developed a great relationship with Bruno as soon as he come. Think about the Watford and City games here. So basically he does well against good opposition. Also in the first game post re-start, Tony clearly had the two biggest chances in that game.

Everyone chose to ignore that but the devil is always in the detail. I look at that and i looked at Sheffield United playing without 3-4 of their starting defenders and i look at United being a different attack altogether and i rolled the dice. It worked. I especially love...

rolling the captaincy dice against the popular pick for the week because the gains can be worth 30-40 points in a single Gameweek. If you're too worried about it, you can simply own the highly captained player as insurance. This isn't for everyone and this isn't a standard rule..

..that i have. I don't have any set formulas or anything. I like doing the research week on week and let instinct rule and just have fun. If Salah is bang in form and is in beast mode all season, you give him the armband that season. It is all very subjective and we learn..

..something new every Gameweek. So just go with your own flow. I'll try answering any questions you might have but i've tried to just give you an insight into what my thinking is week on week. There's a lot more to that goes into it but its mainly subjective and instinctive...

Just think for yourself, don't have rules and formulate theories in your head because its fun. For example Jesus was missing a lot of big chances post restart. Everyone thinks bad pick. But you know he's getting a lot of big chances! That's definitely a good thing. So think..

..for yourself and back your own thinking. I think i'll add here because i can certainly ramble on for a while. Hope this helps. Enjoy the break and enjoy playing this game.

PS thanks for the question @FPLarrows

Wait there's just a little bit more. Having a structure this season with glue guys like Jimenez, Soyunce, Mount enabled me to switch big hitter hot fixtures a lot. What convinced me to do it? This article i wrote for @FFScout

fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2019/10/30/why…

Also there isn't any right or wrong strategy. This is just my thinking with regards to captaincy that i'm giving you an insight into.