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[new article] Trump's attacks on mail voting could depress his base. But he could also be setting a trap that could cost Democrats up to 2 points. 🚨 🚨 nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
The perfect catastrophe Dems are worried about:

1) record-smashing demand for mail ballots
2) unprecedented polarization of mail (D) vs. Election Day (R) votes
3) overwhelmed & understaffed election offices
4) absentee voter inexperience/error
5) counting delays/legal chaos
Today, Biden's leads nationally & in core battlegrounds are robust enough to withstand unusually high mail ballot rejection rates.

But the race could still tighten. And in the past 20 years...

7 Electoral College
12 Senate
71 House

...races have been decided by <2%.
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
The risk of a huge shift towards absentee voting isn’t fraud that hurts the GOP.

It’s administrative dysfunction & voter inexperience that leads to millions of (disproportionately Dem) ballots not counting. washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/styl…
This is why I'm not convinced the "Trump's attacks on mail voting will backfire/depress GOP turnout" narrative is accurate.

Trump is currently creating a massive partisan divide between in-person (R) and absentee (D) votes. And absentees are rejected at much higher rates.
Take #NY27's June special election, for example. The Republican, Chris Jacobs (R), led 70%-28% in the Election Day count.

Once absentees were counted, that lead shrunk to 51%-46% (!). This kind of partisan divide is virtually without precedent.
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
I applaud Marist for indeed being one of the most transparent pollsters out there when it comes to its sampling. It also allows us, like Marist, to study what might have led to a chronic pro-D bias in Oct/Nov 2018 polls... 1/
First, we should note that Marist's Oct/Nov 2018 polls were fairly precise even if there was a chronic pro-D *inaccuracy:*

MO: McCaskill +3 (actual result -6)
IN: Donnelly +3 (-6)
AZ: Sinema +6 (+2)
FL: Nelson +4 (-0.2)
TN: Bredesen -5 (-11)
MN: Walz +17 (+12)
WI: Evers +10 (+1)
What's one thing these surveys had in common? In all seven cases, non-college whites were seriously under-sampled relative to their share of the actual electorate based on estimates using Census/CPS data compiled after the election.
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
New at @CookPolitical: House rating changes in 20 districts, all towards Democrats. I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction.
More @CookPolitical: for the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance of picking up House seats as Republicans on a net basis. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
(Here’s a graphic corrected for #WA03)
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