1) One thing is clear. The extra $600 a week in additional unemployment benefits to cover job losses will expire this weekend.
2) The Senate is soon gone for the week. The House meets Friday – and then is scheduled to be out of session until there’s a new coronavrius bill on which to consider. Remember the House passed a $3 trillion coronavirus bill in May. The Senate has been on ice since then.
3) Coronavirus bill talks are stalled even though Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows having made daily trips to Capitol Hill to talk with Democratic leaders.
4) House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) won’t budge from her demand for a bigger bill. By the same token, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is stuck because his side lacks the votes to approve much of anything.
5) So, the GOP is engineering a gambit to dare Democrats to oppose an interim extension of just unemployment assistance next week.
6) The Senate will take a vote next week on a plan to re-up some of the benefits – but just to the tune of $200 a week on an interim basis. Democrats contend the Republican plan is a fig leaf because the GOP has so much dissent on its side about what it can approve.
7) On Fox, McConnell declared that “there are about 20 of my members who think we've already done enough and some who regret that we did what we did back in April and March. So, yeah, I do have about 20 members who feel that we've added enough to the national debt.”
8) Any big coronavirus bill will need significant Democratic buy-in. So, with the extra aid expiring, McConnell is weaponizing a vote against the Democrats. If Democrats remain steadfast in their demand for a larger bill, McConnell will try to blame them for stalling jobless aid
9) McConnell’s tactic also gives vulnerable Republican Senators facing competitive re-election bids like Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Martha McSally (R-AZ) the chance to be on the record in favor of another round of aid.
10) A couple of things to watch in the coming days:
The GDP numbers were bad today. That could stoke the desire by the sides to expedite the talks. If the talks remain jammed next week, watch the July jobless number, due to be released on August 7.
The GDP numbers were bad today. That could stoke the desire by the sides to expedite the talks. If the talks remain jammed next week, watch the July jobless number, due to be released on August 7.
11) The poor GDP number, coupled with a bad jobs report, could really give impetus to the discussions. Also, watch to see how jumpy the GOP senators in battleground states get. They could start to demand real action on a bill which could pass.
12) Also, watch Meadows. Meadows stock in trade as a Congressman from North Carolina was detonating things. As leader of the Freedom Caucus, Meadows would lob political Molotov cocktails from the backbench – be it on a spending bill or helping unseat Boehner.
13) But now Meadows is central to trying to get the sides together. Is Meadows up to the task, considering his track record?
14) Any major bill is going to have to secure big wins for Dems to marshal Dem votes. It’s that simple. Dems are key to the entire package. That’s why McConnell’s went on the offense today. His side was struggling after outright rejecting the Leader’s proposal earlier in the week
