Thread by @70sBachchan

There's a "mood of nonchalance regarding the possible outcome of an armed clash between China and the United States" in the S China seas. To anyone paying attention, its reminiscent of Sleepwalkers & the Guns of August. ht @mklare1 thenation.com/article/world/…

2/ Drumbeats of war in July have been getting louder compared to escalation in April & May.

https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1285572664812351489

3/ July 4: 2 aircraft carriers—USS Nimitz & Reagan joined by nuclear-capable B-52 Stratofortress

July 15: destroyer USS Ralph Johnson conducts freedom of navigation off Sprattly islands

July 21: 2 B-1B supersonic bombers, designed to carry nuclear weapons, overflys S China seas

4/ July 23rd: Surreal sabre rattling speech from Secretary of State Pompeo "We reversed, 2 wks ago,8 yrs of cheek-turning with respect to intl law in the SCS. We’ve called on China to conform its nuclear capabilities to the strategic realities of our time" state.gov/communist-chin…

5/“not hard to imagine, given this degree of confidence, that top White House officials might be thinking that a small war w 🇨🇳in the South China Sea—intended to demolish Beijing’s bases there & demonstrate the overpowering superiority of American weapons"
thenation.com/article/world/…

6/ Another top official:“If the US military had the capability to credibly threaten to sink all of China’s military vessels,submarines,& merchant ships in the South China Sea within 72 hrs, Chinese leaders would think twice before, say, launching a blockade or invasion of Taiwan”

5/Hence classic Security dilemma. As @gonglei89 writes there are now "deep seated & extensive fears in China that the US is looking to start a war. This is basically the implicit or explicit conviction just about anywhere in conversations w ppl from China"

https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1195121383023316992

8/ "Reverting to a Cold War mentality will drive us toward belligerent posturing that has little or no chance of changing Chinese behavior & could, on the contrary, provoke overreactions & dangerous miscalculations on both sides."

https://twitter.com/ryanl_hass/status/1288288816457973760

"The once unthinkable outcome—actual armed conflict between US & China—now appears possible for the first time since the end of the Korean War. In other words,we are confronting the prospect of not just a new Cold War,but a hot one as well"-fmr Aus PM Rudd foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…

10/ Pompeo's ringleading of speeches by the gang of four — NatSec advisor O’Brien, FBI director Wray, & Attorney general Barr on ideology, espionage, unpatriotic US corporates & hegemony deserves a name. state.gov/communist-chin…

"We will bury you" July.

https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1292118369035063296

This assessment by @JohnCulver689, a retired CIA East Asia analyst, is spot on. lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…

Annual Pentagon Report on China's Military Power is out. Details "staggering amounts of new military hardware" and cautions that the PLA’s objective is to become a “world-class” military (i.e peer competitor to US) by the end of...2049. #GeopoliticsOfGHGs media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/20…

Haas, president of Council on Foreign Relations, calls for end to US "strategic ambiguity" over Taiwan (whether or not US would defend Taiwan if mainland attacked).

Gripping scenario from @PatPorter76 of how Beijing might react in a future conflict. thecritic.co.uk/issues/decembe…

Beijing accuses US Air Force planes spoofing as civilian aircraft during recon missions at least 100 times this year. “It’s a common trick for the USAF to impersonate the transponder code of civilian aircraft from other countries…It is of a vile nature” scmp.com/news/china/dip…

Not a security threat to 🇨🇳 per se but "threat is to future civil aviation flights & potential mis-identification that could happen, possibly as grave as an airliner being shot down, like Iran Air 655; initially blamed on a transponder" - @steffanwatkins

https://twitter.com/steffanwatkins/status/1304125811063238656

15/'Strategic Ambiguity' is dead. US sends its most senior State dept official to Taiwan in 4 decades, angering China. PLA conducts military exercises & cat-out-of-the-bag statement⬇️.Taiwan scrambles jets.

Long live Dire Straits.
reuters.com/article/uk-tai…

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1307761459657691139

16/"If the US extends an unqualified security commitment to Taiwan today, without the ability to make its threats credible, China could respond by mounting an attack" argues Bonnie Glaser.
foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…

@PatPorter76 on Liberal Intl Order dilemma

https://twitter.com/PatPorter76/status/1310219692620029954